Prediction of Urban and Rural Tourism Economic Forecast Based on Machine Learning

Abstract

With the rapid development of tourism, tourism revenue, as one of the important indicators to measure the development of the tourism economy, has high research value. The quasi-prediction of tourism revenue can drive the development of a series of related industries and accelerate the development of the domestic economy. When forecasting tourism income, it is necessary to examine the causal relationship between tourism income and local economic development. The traditional cointegration analysis method is to extract the promotion characteristics of tourism income to the local economy and construct a tourism income prediction model, but it cannot accurately describe the causal relationship between tourism income and local economic development and cannot accurately predict tourism income. We propose an optimized forecasting method of tourism revenue based on time series. This method first conducts a cointegration test on the time series data of the relationship between tourism income and local economic development, constructs a two-variable autoregressive model of tourism income and local economy, and uses the swarm intelligence method to test the causal relationship and the relationship between tourism income and local economic development, calculate the proportion of tourism industry, define the calculation result as the direct influence factor of tourism industry on the local economy, calculate the relevant effect of local tourism development and economic income, and construct tourism income optimization forecast model. The simulation results show that the model used can accurately predict tourism revenue.

The Impact of Digitalization and Infrastructure Development on Domestic Tourism in Russia

“…Domestic tourism is a powerful tool for the growth of the national economy and regional development (Berawi et al, 2021), as it promotes new employment opportunities and capital inflows (Widaningrum et al, 2020). Its effect is closely related to the development of infrastructure (Khadra et al, 2019;Korchagina & Shignanova, 2018), especially in the sphere of transport (Zhou, 2021), as well as the rapid introduction of information and communication technologies (ICT) (Milićević, et al, 2020;Aleksandrov & Fedorova, 2019) and extensive digitalization (Barykin et al, 2021;Sari et al, 2021). Thus, the 'Tourism and Hospitality Industry' National Project was approved in August 2021, one of the main goals is to stimulate the development of domestic tourism in Russia through the formation of tourism infrastructure and creation of high-quality tourism products, increasing the availability and awareness of tourism products.…”