Prediction of the strong earthquakes in Vrancea, Romania, using the CN algorithm

Новикова, О. В.; Vorobieva, Inessa; Enescu, Bogdan; Rădulian, Mircea; Kuznetzov, I.; Panza, G. F.

doi:10.1007/bf00876438

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 3 publications

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“…For instance, BARIS et al (1996) applied it to the North-Anatolian fault zone, Turkey; and COSTA et al (1996a,b) used it in Italy; GALAHAUT (1994) investigated the Himalayan region; GIRARDIN and ROTWAIN (1994) applied it to the Lesser Antillean arc; NOVELO-CASANOVA and ALVAREZ-MOCTEZUMA (1995) studied the Mexican subduction zone; the area of the Jordan-Dead Sea rift zone was the subject of study by ARIEH et al (1992); NOVIKOVA et al (1995) applied the CN to the Vrancea zone, Romania. For instance, BARIS et al (1996) applied it to the North-Anatolian fault zone, Turkey; and COSTA et al (1996a,b) used it in Italy; GALAHAUT (1994) investigated the Himalayan region; GIRARDIN and ROTWAIN (1994) applied it to the Lesser Antillean arc; NOVELO-CASANOVA and ALVAREZ-MOCTEZUMA (1995) studied the Mexican subduction zone; the area of the Jordan-Dead Sea rift zone was the subject of study by ARIEH et al (1992); NOVIKOVA et al (1995) applied the CN to the Vrancea zone, Romania.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of the CN Intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction Algorithm to the Area of the Southern External Dinarides

Herak

Panza

et al. 1999

Pure and Applied Geophysics

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The paper presents the results of application of the CN algorithm to the area of the Southern External Dinarides. Two cases are considered -one for the knowledge gained throughout the considered period of time , and the other when learning ceased in 1986. In the first case 8 out of 9 strong earthquakes could have been predicted, three false alarms are declared (covering 7% of the total time considered) and TIPs occupy 32% of the total time. There is no clear relation between the TIPs duration and the size of the related earthquake. The second case (when the CN functions are defined on the basis of a shorter learning period) produces even slightly better results: only two false alarms are declared. In both cases current alarm exists in the region. All attempts to reduce the area of the regional polygon resulted in poorer prediction results.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of the CN Intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction Algorithm to the Area of the Southern External Dinarides

Herak

Panza

et al. 1999

Pure and Applied Geophysics

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Stress in the Descending Relic Slab beneath the Vrancea Region, Romania

Ismail‐Zadeh

Panza

Naimark

2000

Pure appl. geophys.

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We examine the effects of viscous flow, phase transition, and dehydration on the stress field of a relic slab to explain the intermediate-depth seismic activity in the Vrancea region. A 2-D finite-element model of a slab gravitationally sinking in the mantle predicts (1) downward extension in the slab as inferred from the stress axes of earthquakes, (2) the maximum stress occurring in the depth range of 70 km to 160 km, and (3) a very narrow area of the maximum stress. The depth distribution of the annual average seismic energy released in earthquakes has a shape similar to that of the depth distribution of the stress in the slab. Estimations of the cumulative annual seismic moment observed and associated with the volume change due to the basalt-eclogite phase changes in the oceanic slab indicate that a pure phase-transition model cannot solely explain the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the region. We consider that one of the realistic mechanisms for triggering these events in the Vrancea slab can be the dehydration of rocks which makes fluid-assisted faulting possible.

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Geodynamics and intermediate-depth seismicity in Vrancea (the south-eastern Carpathians): Current state-of-the art

et al. 2012

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Prediction of the strong earthquakes in Vrancea, Romania, using the CN algorithm

Cited by 5 publications

References 3 publications

Application of the CN Intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction Algorithm to the Area of the Southern External Dinarides

Application of the CN Intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction Algorithm to the Area of the Southern External Dinarides

Stress in the Descending Relic Slab beneath the Vrancea Region, Romania

Geodynamics and intermediate-depth seismicity in Vrancea (the south-eastern Carpathians): Current state-of-the art

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