Prediction of the Risk of Occupational Diseases of Dust Etiology

Abstract

Purpose. To develop theoretical and methodological approaches to the assessment of the risk of occupational diseases of the respiratory organs of workers caused by the dustiness of the air in the working area. Methods. Analytical methods, methods of probability theory, results of statistical processing of indicators of occupational respiratory diseases of workers and methods of mathematical modelling are applied in the work. The results. The proposed method of predictive assessment of individual and collective risk of the occurrence of occupational diseases of the respiratory organs of workers caused by dustiness of the air in the working area, the information base of which is the materials of certification of workplaces according to working conditions. According to this methodology, risk is defined as the probability of occurrence of an occupational disease during a certain period of time. The methodology is based on the assumption that with dust loads on the body of workers close to critical levels, there is a linear relationship between the severity of the consequences and the amount of accumulated dust. The assessment of the individual risk of the occurrence of an occupational disease of dust aetiology is based on principles based on causal rather than probabilistic relationships, while taking into account the duration of the harmful factor on the worker, the concentration and physical and chemical properties of dust, the presence and protective properties of respiratory PPE , difficulty of work and other indicators characterising working conditions. Scientific novelty. The peculiarity of the proposed methodological approach to the assessment of the risk of occupational diseases of the workers’ respiratory organs of caused by the air dustiness in the working area is that by calculating the dust load on the body of workers and comparing it with the value of the critical dust load, an assessment of the individual risk is carried out, and on its basis, taking into account the number of employees at the facility, the collective risk is calculated. Practical value. The availability of information regarding the individual risk of occupational diseases in an employee allows for timely management decisions regarding the implementation of a set of measures aimed at improving working conditions or the introduction of means of collective and individual protection of the respiratory organs of employees, and also makes it possible to make a timely decision regarding the impracticality of a particular employee’s further work in harmful working conditions when the permissible level of risk is exceeded.