Prediction of the rate of hand injuries in Singapore

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to analyze the correlation between the incidence rate of hand injuries and various construction and manufacturing indicators in Singapore. We hypothesize that the number of hand injuries is correlated to activity in the construction and manufacturing industries in Singapore. Methods 20,764 patients who underwent hand surgeries in a tertiary institution between 2012 to 2018 were reviewed. Two independent, blinded observers extracted the frequency of hand surgeries performed from Electronic Medical Records. Economic indicators pertinent to Singapore’s labor force, construction and manufacturing industries were collected and smoothed by simple moving average of the prior 3 months. Results were analyzed using IBM SPSS v25.0. Results Significant independent univariate variables were Purchasing Manager Index for Manufacturing and Industrial Production Index. Multivariate regression of quarterly reported figures showed that Purchasing Manager Index for Manufacturing, Construction Index, Labor Productivity Change for Gross Domestic Product and Labor Productivity Change for Manufacturing were significantly correlated with hand injuries, with r square = 60.9%. Conclusion Quarterly economic indicators from construction and manufacturing industries can be used to predict the incidence of hand injuries with a 60.9% correlation. These findings may be useful for anticipating healthcare resource allocation to treat hand injuries. Type of Study and Level of Evidence Economic and decision, Level II.