Prediction of the potential distribution pattern of the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) under climate change based on ensemble modelling

Abstract

BACKGROUND Rodent infestation is a global biological problem. Rodents are widely distributed worldwide, cause harm to agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry production and spread a variety of natural focal diseases. In this study, 10 ecological niche models were combined into an ensemble model to assess the distribution of suitable habitats for Rhombomys opimus and to predict the impact of future climate change on the distribution of R. opimus under low, medium and high socioeconomic pathway scenarios of CMIP6. RESULTS In general, with the exception of extreme climates (2090‐SSP585), the current and potential future ranges of R. opimus habitat are maintained at approximately 220 × 104 km2. In combination with human footprint data, the potential distribution area of R. opimus was found to coincide with areas with a moderate human footprint. In addition, this distribution area will gradually shift to higher‐latitude regions, and the suitable habitat area of R. opimus will gradually shrink in China, Iran, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan while increasing in Mongolia and Kazakhstan. CONCLUSIONS These results help identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of R. opimus and provide supportive information for the development of management strategies to protect against future ecological and human health risks. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Perceived Effectiveness and Responsibilities of the Forest Biological Disasters Control System of China: A Perspective of Government Administrators

“…The administrators think the funding for the control work is not sufficient and in time, while there is a lack of employment. This statement is consistent with what Fan et al (2021) stated, "it's urgent to increase the funding and employment for the FBDCs" [2]. At this moment, most of the control responsibility is put on the local government rather than the central government, according to the recent institutional revolutions.…”

“…In addition, because of the funding limitation, low-price chemical pesticides would be frequently used. This leads to the enhanced resistance of the pests, while the lower amount of native predators, even hurting the ecosystem services [2,55,59].…”

“…Forest biological disasters (FBDs) occur when the native harmful species or invasive species, such as pests, harmful plants, and rodent animals, cause damage to the forest ecosystem exceeding the natural resilience [1,2]. These disasters hinder ecological protection and species conservation and destroy crops (10-16% of crops are ruined before harvest), forests, and related infrastructures [3][4][5].…”

“…Thus, this study was conducted to evaluate the perceived effectiveness and responsibilities of the FBDC system of China from the perspective of government administrators at the province-, prefecture-, and county-levels. Specifically, the objectives of this study are: (1) to quantitatively evaluate the perceived effectiveness of the FBDC system by the method of Entropy Weight Model, taking the control measures, management mechanism, and employment aspect into consideration; (2) to further analyze the affecting factors of the perceived effectiveness using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Simultaneous Equations Models (SEM); (3) to evaluate the perceived responsibilities of the CBDPCs by the administrative level. Through the study, there would be a better awareness of the situation and issues of the FBDC system in China.…”

Ecological niche modeling based on ensemble algorithms to predicting current and future potential distribution of African swine fever virus in China

“…The basis of this model is that the species-environment relationship can explain and predict present and future species spatio-temporal distribution 9 . Ecological niche model has been widely used in biology, wildlife protection, global biological change, and widely used in the field of epidemiology 10 – 12 . In addition, ecological niche models have been successfully applied to disease control and prediction.…”