Prediction of the naturalisation potential and weediness risk of transgenic cotton in Australia

Rogers, D.J.; Reid, R. E. H.; Rogers, Janet J.; Addison, Stewart J.

doi:10.1016/j.agee.2006.07.007

Cited by 15 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The modelling of the ecological niche for G. hirsutum populations in Mexico was also based on data obtained from actual wild cotton populations. This confers a more precise input for distribution inference algorithms such as GARP, than was obtained by previous studies where this distribution was inferred using data from cultivated cotton (Rogers et al. 2007).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent long-distance transgene flow into wild populations conforms to historical patterns of gene flow in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) at its centre of origin

et al. 2011

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Over 95% of the currently cultivated cotton was domesticated from Gossypium hirsutum, which originated and diversified in Mexico. Demographic and genetic studies of this species at its centre of origin and diversification are lacking, although they are critical for cotton conservation and breeding. We investigated the actual and potential distribution of wild cotton populations, as well as the contribution of historical and recent gene flow in shaping cotton genetic diversity and structure. We evaluated historical gene flow using chloroplast microsatellites and recent gene flow through the assessment of transgene presence in wild cotton populations, exploiting the fact that genetically modified cotton has been planted in the North of Mexico since 1996. Assessment of geographic structure through Bayesian spatial analysis, BAPS and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP), suggests that G. hirsutum seems to conform to a metapopulation scheme, with eight distinct metapopulations. Despite evidence for long-distance gene flow, genetic variation among the metapopulations of G. hirsutum is high (He = 0.894 ± 0.01). We identified 46 different haplotypes, 78% of which are unique to a particular metapopulation, in contrast to a single haplotype detected in cotton cultivars. Recent gene flow was also detected (m = 66/270 = 0.24), with four out of eight metapopulations having transgenes. We discuss the implications of the data presented here with respect to the conservation and future breeding of cotton populations and genetic diversity at its centre of crop origin.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent long-distance transgene flow into wild populations conforms to historical patterns of gene flow in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) at its centre of origin

et al. 2011

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“…They found that in these environments, no seed type led to naturalizing populations. The second approach (Rogers et al., 2007) was to develop and validate an inferential model for G. hirsutum using Climex V2 software (Sutherst et al. , 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Roadside surveys support predictions of negligible naturalisation potential for cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) in north‐east Australia

Addison¹,

Farrell

Roberts

et al. 2007

Weed Research

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A survey of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) volunteers was conducted along the 1400 km of a cottonseed transport route in north-east Australia to determine the extent of naturalisation from spilt seed. In each year, 1% of the road distance was inspected for volunteer plants. The survey results were juxtaposed with the eco-climatic suitability predictions from inferential modelling. Over 3 years, 22 cotton plants were found at eight sites. Within the cotton production region, volunteers averaged 2.28 plants km )1 of road; their most likely source was seed cotton spilt during the previous harvest. Further north, three plants were found over 3 years, at an average density of 0.089 plants km )1 of road; all three plants were found in locations with a positive Ecoclimatic Index. No secondary spread was detected. Roadside slashing reduced plant survival and the potential to produce seed. In the wet tropics, weed competition and slashing prevented volunteers establishing. The surveys indicate that roadsides in north-east Australia are a hostile environment for the establishment of cotton plants, with no evidence of naturalisation or secondary spread. Current transport practices utilizing fully covered loads present negligible risk of producing naturalised populations of cotton (either transgenic or non-transgenic) on roadsides in north-east Australia.

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“…A rigorous model has been developed to predict the regions in Australia that are climatically suitable for long-term survival of feral cotton (Rogers et al, 2007; OGTR, 2008). The modelling program predicted that the winter temperatures in current Australian cotton-growing areas are too cold to support the establishment of permanent populations.…”

Section: Weediness and Naturalisationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In a natural setting, wind, water and birds may serve as dispersal agents (Stephens, 1958(Stephens, , 1966 HEPX, 2007). In an agricultural setting, greater dispersal of cottonseed generally may occur during transport (Addison et al, 2007), stock-feeding (Coppock et al, 1985;Sullivan et al, 1993aSullivan et al, , 1993b or adverse weather conditions, and rarely by animals (Smith, 1995). …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Typically such volunteers are grazed by livestock and/or killed by roadside management practices, limiting their potential to persist and reproduce (Eastick and Hearnden, 2006;Addison et al, 2007). Surveys in 2002Surveys in , 2004Surveys in and 2005 along Australian routes for transporting ginned G. hirsutum seed for stockfeed indicated that plants infrequently established in the roadside environment, mostly as transient populations despite more than 12 years of using the routes (Addison et al, 2007). Gossypium hirsutum volunteers tended to establish in highly and regularly disturbed environments.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Prediction of the naturalisation potential and weediness risk of transgenic cotton in Australia

Cited by 15 publications

References 16 publications

Recent long-distance transgene flow into wild populations conforms to historical patterns of gene flow in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) at its centre of origin

Recent long-distance transgene flow into wild populations conforms to historical patterns of gene flow in cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) at its centre of origin

Roadside surveys support predictions of negligible naturalisation potential for cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) in north‐east Australia

Safety Assessment of Transgenic Organisms, Volume 4

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