Prediction of the impact of climate change on fast-growing timber trees in China

Zhao, Zefang; Guo, Yuxue; Zhu, Fuxin; Jiang, Yuan

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119653

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…1). In 2000, external wood dependency remained at 27.9%, but by 2019 it had reached 58.8%, which means that the situation in the Chinese wood market is serious (Zhao et al 2021). In other words, although the total amount of China's planted forest resources has continued to grow, it still relies too much on imported timber, and the condition of China's forests remains disappointing in terms of changes in indicators such as timber volume, growth rate, age structure, and diversity (Chen et al 2021;Yin 2021).…”

Section: Forestry Development In the Context Of Ecological Civilizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Life cycle analysis for reconstituted decorative lumber from an ecological perspective: A Review

Zhou

Shi

Kaner

2022

BioRes

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In response to global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Chinese government has pledged to curtail increased carbon dioxide emissions beyond 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, thus achieving a status of an ecological civilization. Reconstituted decorative lumber, with rotary-cut (or planed) veneer from plantation or common species timber as the main raw material, has beneficial development opportunities for forestry from the perspective of an ecological civilization. This paper first discusses China’s current state of ecological civilization, then researches the various life cycles of reconstituted decorative lumber using the life cycle theory and provides a reference for the Chinese reconstituted decorative lumber industry’s development by analyzing progress in related fields. The eco-friendliness of reconstituted decorative lumber is explained via systematic combing, and proposals for the use and promotion of reconstituted decorative lumber in the new period are presented. Research and analysis findings show that it is necessary to comprehensively regulate the production chain of reconstituted decorative lumber based on life cycle. Research on the development and utilization of reconstituted decorative lumber needs to be strengthened. The promotion and marketing of reconstituted decorative lumber can be promoted by emphasizing its ecological significance.

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Section: Forestry Development In the Context Of Ecological Civilizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Life cycle analysis for reconstituted decorative lumber from an ecological perspective: A Review

Zhou

Shi

Kaner

2022

BioRes

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“…These bioclimatic variables were downloaded from WorldClim version2.1 (Fick and Hijmans, 2017), 5 the resolution is 2.5 arc-min (∼ 5 km spatial resolution at the equator). The current bioclimatic variables were derived from the monthly temperature and rainfall values of meteorological stations around the world from 1970 to 2000, which is a popular dataset used in species distribution modeling and related ecological modeling techniques (Zhao et al, 2021). The future bioclimatic variables of the 2050s (2041-2060) were simulated by Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 2 (BCC-CSM2-MR) for representative concentration pathway (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) (Fischer et al, 2005;Zhao et al, 2021), this model is reliable in simulating precipitation and temperature in China (Wu et al, 2019).…”

Section: Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite MaxEnt having many advantages, some scholars think that a single model can produce over-fitting, and an integrated model may reduce the uncertainty of model fitting (Battini et al, 2019). The ensemble model (EM) strategy is widely used for studying the habitat distribution of species because of its higher accuracy, and better universality and fitting (Guo et al, 2019;Zhao et al, 2021). Moreover, MaxEnt is only applicable when considering abiotic factors; its applicability to areas strongly affected by human activities needs to be further verified.…”

Section: Model Accuracy and Main Environment Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Global climate change has become the most important environmental issue we have ever faced, and which is considered one of the major threats to global biodiversity in the 21st Century (Dawson, 2011;Zhao et al, 2021). Climate change affects significantly the growth, reproduction and habitat variation of species, plant phenology, and even the ecosystem stability, both directly and indirectly (Pielke et al, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling habitat suitability of Hippophae rhamnoides L. using MaxEnt under climate change in China: A case study of H. r. sinensis and H. r. turkestanica

Si²,

Li³

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Hippophae rhamnoides is widely known for its important ecological, economic, and social benefits. It is known as the pioneer plant of soil and water conservation, with homology in food and medicine. With the climate warming in recent years, the numbers of this species and countries with this plant have decreased steadily. H. r. sinensis and H. r. turkestanica have the widest distribution area in China, which account for more than 90% of the total national Hippophae rhamnoides resources. We firstly screened the presence data and downscale the environment variables (climate and soil) by correlation analysis. Secondly, based on the 232 occurrence data of H. r. sinensis and 10 environmental variables, the 73 occurrence data of H. r. turkestanica and 11 environmental variables, we simulated and predicted their suitable habitats in China, both at the current time and in the 2050S (2041–2060), and analyzed the dominant factors effecting its distribution by using MaxEnt. Finally, we studied the habitat variations and centroid migrations of these subspecies under future climate scenarios using the spatial analysis function of ArcGIS. The results indicated that the area of suitable habitat for H. r. sinensis is much larger than that of H. r. trkestanica in China. The suitable habitat of H. r. sinensis is concentrated in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River, mainly distributed in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Sichuan, Qinghai, Gansu, Ningxia, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia, and that of H. r. trkestanica is mainly distributed in Xinjiang and Tibet. The former is mainly affected by bio13 (precipitation of the wettest month), bio11 (mean temperature of the coldest quarte) and bio3 (Isothermality), and the latter is mainly affected by bio13 (precipitation of the wettest month), bio2 (mean diurnal range) and bio15 (precipitation seasonality), and the former is also more stable in the face of future climate change. They are more susceptible to climate than soil in their survival. Although, the two subspecies tend to expand and migrate toward lower latitude under future climate scenarios, there are some differences. H. r. sinensis will migrate westward, while H. r. trkestanica will migrate eastward as a whole. They have a high stability of suitable habitat and are not at risk of extinction in the future. The study’s findings help to clarify the resource reserve of Hippophae rhamnoides L. in China, which will help to guide the protection of wild resources and to popularize artificial planting in suitable areas, and provides scientific basis for the protection of ecological environment.

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“…We used the comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model (Zhao et al 2021b, Guo et al 2022 to predict the habitat suitability for all 42 woody species. The CHS model is an integrated model strategy that can simultaneously simulate the species' habitat shifts caused by climate change and the maximum suitable habitat range defined by the nonclimatic variables.…”

Section: Model Construction 231 Distribution Model Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

A greener Loess Plateau in the future: moderate warming will expand the potential distribution areas of woody species

Guo

Zhao

Yuan

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Understanding the effect of future global warming on the distribution and diversity of woody species in the Loess Plateau is critical to the vegetation restoration and rebuilding of this area and yet is highly challenging. In the absence of enough experimental data, projection based on species distribution models is the best option for assessing the future shift in species distribution areas. Here, via a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model, we present an assessment of potential distribution area change for two plant life forms with a total of 42 key woody species, including 21 tree species and 21 shrub species, on the Loess Plateau under multiple scenarios, and based on this information, we explore the responses of regional potential woody species diversity to future global warming. The results showed that warming will promote the expansion of potential distribution areas for most woody species and generally increase regional species diversity, which will result in a greener Loess Plateau. Our results also show that shrub species are more drought-tolerant and less adversely affected by climate change and thus should be considered a priority in vegetation restoration, especially in the arid area of the northern Loess Plateau. These results are helpful for identifying priority restoration areas, selecting appropriate species for artificial planting and providing useful information for vegetation restoration and management in the future.

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Prediction of the impact of climate change on fast-growing timber trees in China

Cited by 14 publications

References 42 publications

Life cycle analysis for reconstituted decorative lumber from an ecological perspective: A Review

Life cycle analysis for reconstituted decorative lumber from an ecological perspective: A Review

Modeling habitat suitability of Hippophae rhamnoides L. using MaxEnt under climate change in China: A case study of H. r. sinensis and H. r. turkestanica

A greener Loess Plateau in the future: moderate warming will expand the potential distribution areas of woody species

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