2007
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01461.x
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Prediction of the distribution of Arctic‐nesting pink‐footed geese under a warmer climate scenario

Abstract: Global climate change is expected to shift species ranges polewards, with a risk of range contractions and population declines of especially high‐Arctic species. We built species distribution models for Svalbard‐nesting pink‐footed geese to relate their occurrence to environmental and climatic variables, and used the models to predict their distribution under a warmer climate scenario. The most parsimonious model included mean May temperature, the number of frost‐free months and the proportion of moist and wet… Show more

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Cited by 175 publications
(90 citation statements)
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“…On Svalbard, it is known that early snow melt has a dramatic positive effect on the density of nesting geese and their fecundity (Madsen et al 2007). In the longer term, the advancement of spring in East Greenland may contribute substantially to the continued growth of the populations, such as has been predicted to be the case in Svalbard (Jensen et al 2008). In Jameson Land, the goose families feed in marshes away from the moulting grounds of the non-breeders; hence, the growth in density of breeding geese will not necessarily affect the densities of non-breeding moulting geese.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…On Svalbard, it is known that early snow melt has a dramatic positive effect on the density of nesting geese and their fecundity (Madsen et al 2007). In the longer term, the advancement of spring in East Greenland may contribute substantially to the continued growth of the populations, such as has been predicted to be the case in Svalbard (Jensen et al 2008). In Jameson Land, the goose families feed in marshes away from the moulting grounds of the non-breeders; hence, the growth in density of breeding geese will not necessarily affect the densities of non-breeding moulting geese.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Western Palaearctic geese population densities have increased considerably during the past decades and climate warming is expected to result in a further growth of at least some of them (Jensen et al 2008). In a field experiment with manipulated grazing by Greylag Geese imposing different grazing pressures, information was gathered on the biomass, decomposition rates and carbon fluxes of temperate grasslands to assess the consequences of winter grazing by geese for two key processes that contribute to the carbon balance of a temperate grassland ecosystem: photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration, and this in different seasons.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As geese numbers are projected to increase partially due to the change in climate (Kéry et al 2006, Jensen et al 2008, the described effect of grazing pressure on the CO 2 fluxes might contribute to a possible feedback loop to climate change. Within that framework, especially NEE, the resultant of GPP and TER, is of interest.…”
Section: Co 2 Balancementioning
confidence: 99%
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“…Concurrently, a major increase in the population sizes of barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) in Svalbard has occurred (http://www.mosj.no/en/) and the hatch date of little auks (Alle alle) has advanced in the Hornsund area increasing their breeding success (Moe et al 2009). Species distribution models for Svalbard−nesting pink−footed geese (Anser brachyrhyn− chus) suggests that climate warming may lead to a further growth in geese popula− tions (Jensen et al 2008), and therefore enhance the eutrophication of Arctic freshwaters. Lakes and ponds in Svalbard are extremely sensitive to climate changes and when combined with superimposed stressors, they have cascading ef− fects Guilizzoni et al 2006;Luoto et al 2014a;Nevalainen et al 2015), such as increasing lake productivity and warming of surface waters.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%