Prediction of surface currents and drifter trajectories on the inner Scotian Shelf

Thompson, Keith R.; Jiang, Sheng; Smith, Peter C.; Cong, Liangzi

doi:10.1029/2001jc001119

Cited by 27 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Because most drifter studies have been in oceanic settings and used much larger drifters, and because the USGS drifters used in this study are not a standard design, simulations were conducted for several leeway factors, within the range of reported leeway factors in the literature, and a leeway factor of 0.006 was chosen for the drifter simulations. This value is similar to values in the literature for multiple drifter designs (Thompson et al 2003) and consistent with the observed properties of the TRISTAR drifter studied by Niiler et al (1995), which bears some similarity to the USGS drifter but is much larger.…”

Section: Drifterssupporting

confidence: 90%

“…For this reason, the drifter will be more strongly influenced by wind than the "kite" drogue region alone. To account for this effect, the horizontal drifter velocity is typically estimated (e.g., Thompson et al 2003) using the equation…”

Section: Driftersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…where u drifter is the drifter velocity u drogue is the velocity at the drogue ("kite") portion of the drifter, α is the leeway factor, which can be estimated by analytical or empirical approaches (Thompson et al 2003), and u wind is the wind velocity 10-m above the water surface. Because most drifter studies have been in oceanic settings and used much larger drifters, and because the USGS drifters used in this study are not a standard design, simulations were conducted for several leeway factors, within the range of reported leeway factors in the literature, and a leeway factor of 0.006 was chosen for the drifter simulations.…”

Section: Driftersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrodynamic Simulation of Circulation and Residence Time in Clifton Court Forebay

MacWilliams¹,

Gross²

2013

SFEWS

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Section: Drifterssupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Driftersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Driftersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrodynamic Simulation of Circulation and Residence Time in Clifton Court Forebay

MacWilliams¹,

Gross²

2013

SFEWS

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“…(1). The relative skill of each method was then quantified using the following calculation of γ 2 (Thompson et al, 2003):…”

Section: Discussion a Alternative Approaches For Future Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Improving Statistical Downscaling of General Circulation Models

Titus¹,

Jiang

Greatbatch

et al. 2013

Atmosphere-Ocean

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We present a new method for the statistical downscaling of coarse-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) fields to predict local climate change. Most atmospheric variables have strong seasonal cycles. We show that the prediction of the non-seasonal variability of maximum and minimum daily surface temperature is improved if the seasonal cycle is removed prior to the statistical analysis. The new method consists of three major steps. First, the average seasonal cycles of both predictands and predictors are removed. Second, a principal component-based multiple linear regression model between the deseasonalized predictands and predictors is developed and validated. Finally, the regression is used to make projections of future changes in maximum and minimum daily surface temperature at Shearwater, Nova Scotia. This projection is made using the local gridscale variables of the Canadian General Circulation Model Version 3 (CGCM3) climate model as predictors. Our statistical downscaling method indicates significant skill in predicting the observed distribution of temperature using GCM predictors. Projections suggest minimum and maximum temperatures at Shearwater will be up to about five degrees warmer by 2100 under the current "business-as-usual" scenario.RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Nous présentons une nouvelle méthode pour la réduction d'échelle statistique des champs des modèles de circulation générale (MCG) à faible résolution pour prévoir les changements du climat local. La plupart des variables atmosphériques ont des cycles saisonniers bien marqués. Nous démontrons que la prédiction de la variabilité non saisonnière de la température de surface quotidienne minimum et maximum est meilleure si on retranche le cycle saisonnier avant de procéder à l'analyse statistique. Voici les trois grandes étapes de cette nouvelle méthode. D'abord, nous retirons les cycles saisonniers moyens des prédictants et des prédicteurs. Ensuite, nous concevons et validons un modèle de régression linéaire multiple sur composantes principales entre les prédictants et les prédicteurs désaisonnalisés. Enfin, nous nous servons de la régression afin d'établir des projections pour les changements à venir dans la température de surface quotidienne minimum et maximum à Shearwater en Nouvelle-Écosse. Cette projection est établie au moyen des variables locales à l'échelle du maillage de la troisième version du modèle canadien de circulation générale (MCCG3). Notre méthode de réduction d'échelle statistique se révèle très efficace pour prédire la répartition observée de la température au moyen des prédicteurs du MCG. D'après les projections, les températures minimum et maximum à Shearwater connaîtront une augmentation d'environ cinq degrés d'ici 2100 dans le scénario actuel de type « statu quo ».

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“…Figure 8 also shows the 2 statistics for the four stations. It is the ratio of the variance of the hindcast errors to the variance of the observations [e.g., Thompson et al, 2003] …”

Section: Validation Of the Storm Surge Hindcastmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the frequency of storm surges and extreme sea levels in the northwest Atlantic

Bernier

Thompson

2006

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] A 40 year hindcast of storm surges in the northwest Atlantic and adjacent shelf seas is performed using a 2-D nonlinear barotropic ocean model forced by realistic 6 hourly winds and air pressures. This hindcast is used to generate spatial maps of the return level of storm surges and also to estimate the return period of extreme total sea levels. The accuracy of the hindcast is assessed in two ways. First, the standard deviation of the difference between the observed residuals (total sea level minus tide) and the hindcast is calculated at 24 tide gauge locations. A typical error standard deviation is 8 cm. Second, the 40 year return level of observed residuals is compared to that of the hindcast surges. The predicted 40 year return levels are typically within 10 cm of observed return levels at the 24 observation locations. A spatial map of the 40 year return level of surges is presented for the northwest Atlantic. It identifies the regions exposed to the largest surges. Total sea levels are reconstructed using (1) the hindcast surges and (2) tides and higher-frequency variability predicted from short, observed sea level records. An extremal analysis of the reconstructed total sea levels shows that their 40 year return levels are in good agreement (within about 10 cm) with the levels calculated from multidecadal observed sea level records. This means that given a short record anywhere within the model domain, or results from a good tidal model, 40 year return levels can be estimated.

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Prediction of surface currents and drifter trajectories on the inner Scotian Shelf

Cited by 27 publications

References 14 publications

Hydrodynamic Simulation of Circulation and Residence Time in Clifton Court Forebay

Hydrodynamic Simulation of Circulation and Residence Time in Clifton Court Forebay

Improving Statistical Downscaling of General Circulation Models

Predicting the frequency of storm surges and extreme sea levels in the northwest Atlantic

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