Prediction of solar activity on the basis of spectral characteristics of sunspot number

Echer, E.; Rigozo, Nivaor Rodolfo; Nordemann, D. J. R.; Vieira, L. E. A.

doi:10.5194/angeo-22-2239-2004

Cited by 30 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The trend with a period of ca. 30-32 years is likely to have a solar origin, as it matches a period of 31.1 years that has been found elsewhere in sunspot number spectral analyses (Echer et al 2004;Clúa de Gonzalez et al 1993). It has also been suggested that this period of 31 years is the origin of the 35-year Brückner climatic periodicity (Raspopov et al 2000).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 89%

A long-term trend in the F2-layer critical frequency as observed at Alma-Ata ionosonde station

Vodyannikov

Yakovets

Litvinov

2014

Earth, Planets and Space

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In this study, we combine monthly median values for the F2-layer critical frequency (foF2), measured at Alma-Ata ionosonde station [43.25°N, 76.92°E] between 1000 and 1400 (local time), with historical data on the monthly mean values for solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F10.7) and the geomagnetic activity index (Ap) (available at http://www.swpc. noaa.gov/), over the period from 1957 to 2012. These data are used to derive long-term trends in the upper ionosphere and to discuss their importance in the context of coupling between solar and geomagnetic activity in the ionosphere at middle latitudes.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 89%

A long-term trend in the F2-layer critical frequency as observed at Alma-Ata ionosonde station

Vodyannikov

Yakovets

Litvinov

2014

Earth, Planets and Space

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“…Thus, Hathaway and Wilson (2004) (2003) claim that solar activity will decrease after cycle 24 and will be heading for a Maunder Minimum in the next few decades. Duhau (2003) mentions that solar activity is in a declining episode that started about 1993.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Predictions are based on some characteristics of the sunspot activity in successive cycles. Hathaway and Wilson (2004) mention that the sunspot record shows that (i) sunspot cycles have periods of 131 ± 14 months with a normal distribution; (ii) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; (iii) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; (iv) large-amplitude cycles are preceded by short-period cycles; (v) large-amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; (vi) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity of the two solar hemispheres; (vii) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the solar equator is anticorrelated with the cycle period; (viii) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; (ix) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (year 1715); and (x) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. For cycle 23, there were many predictions based on different criteria.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

A Preliminary Estimate of the Size of the Coming Solar Cycle 24, based on Ohl’s Precursor Method

Kane

2007

Sol Phys

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For many purposes (e.g., satellite drag, operation of power grids on Earth, and satellite communication systems), predictions of the strength of a solar cycle are needed. Predictions are made by using different methods, depending upon the characteristics of sunspot cycles. However, the method most successful seems to be the precursor method by Ohl and his group, in which the geomagnetic activity in the declining phase of a sunspot cycle is found to be well correlated with the sunspot maximum of the next cycle. In the present communication, the method is illustrated by plotting the 12-month running means aa(min) of the geomagnetic disturbance index aa near sunspot minimum versus the 12-month running means of the sunspot number Rz near sunspot maximum [aa(min) versus Rz(max)], using data for sunspot cycles 9 -18 to predict the Rz(max) of cycle 19, using data for cycles 9 -19 to predict Rz(max) of cycle 20, and so on, and finally using data for cycles 9 -23 to predict Rz(max) of cycle 24, which is expected to occur in 2011 -2012. The correlations were good (∼+0.90) and our preliminary predicted Rz(max) for cycle 24 is 142 ± 24, though this can be regarded as an upper limit, since there are indications that solar minimum may occur as late as March 2008. (Some workers have reported that the aa values before 1957 would have an error of 3 nT; if true, the revised estimate would be 124 ± 26.) This result of the precursor method is compared with several other predictions of cycle 24, which are in a very wide range (50 -200), so that whatever may be the final observed value, some method or other will be discredited, as happened in the case of cycle 23.

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“…There are many predictions in the literature (Ohl 1966;Feynman 1982;Feynman and Gu 1986;Hathaway et al 1999;Badalyan et al 2001;Wang et al 2002;Duhau 2003;Sello 2003;Mari et al 2003Mari et al , 2004Kaftan 2004;Echer et al 2004;Gholipour et al 2005;Schatten 2005;Li et al 2005;Svalgaard et al 2005;Chopra and Dabas 2006;Dikpati et al 2006;Du 2006;Hathaway and Wilson 2006;Clilverd et al 2006;Vasilis et al 2006;Lantos 2006;Lundstedt 2006;Wang and Sheeley, Jr 2006;Choudhuri et al 2007;Javaraiah 2007;Maha et al 2007;Georgieva and Kirov 2008) on the previous and future 24th solar cycle and beyond. Most of these studies mainly concentrate on prediction of the amplitude (maximum sunspot number during a cycle).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Prediction of solar cycle 24 and beyond

Hiremath

2008

Astrophys Space Sci

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In the previous study (Hiremath, Astron. Astrophys. 452:591, 2006a), the solar cycle is modeled as a forced and damped harmonic oscillator and from all the 22 cycles , long-term amplitudes, frequencies, phases and decay factor are obtained. Using these physical parameters of the previous 22 solar cycles and by an autoregressive model, we predict the amplitude and period of the present cycle 23 and future fifteen solar cycles. The period of present solar cycle 23 is estimated to be 11.73 years and it is expected that onset of next sunspot activity cycle 24 might starts during the period 2008.57 ± 0.17 (i.e., around MaySeptember 2008). The predicted period and amplitude of the present cycle 23 are almost similar to the period and amplitude of the observed cycle. With these encouraging results, we also predict the profiles of future 15 solar cycles. Important predictions are: (i) the period and amplitude of the cycle 24 are 9.34 years and 110 (±11), (ii) the period and amplitude of the cycle 25 are 12.49 years and 110 (±11), (iii) during the cycles 26 (sun might experience a very high sunspot activity, (iv) the sun might also experience a very low (around 60) sunspot activity during cycle 31 (2089-2100 AD) and, (v) length of the solar cycles vary from 8.65 years for the cycle 33 to maximum of 13.07 years for the cycle 35.

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Prediction of solar activity on the basis of spectral characteristics of sunspot number

Cited by 30 publications

References 30 publications

A long-term trend in the F2-layer critical frequency as observed at Alma-Ata ionosonde station

A long-term trend in the F2-layer critical frequency as observed at Alma-Ata ionosonde station

A Preliminary Estimate of the Size of the Coming Solar Cycle 24, based on Ohl’s Precursor Method

Prediction of solar cycle 24 and beyond

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