Abstract:Background: To avoid exhaustion of medical resources by COVID-19 care, policy-makers must predict care needs, specifically estimating the proportion of severe cases likely to require intensive care. In Osaka prefecture, Japan, the number of these severe cases exceeded the capacity of ICU units prepared for COVID-19 from mid-April, 2021.
Objective: This study used a statistical model to elucidate dynamics of severe cases in Osaka and validated the model through prospective testing.
Methods: The study extended f… Show more
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