Prediction of potentially suitable distribution areas of Thesium chinense Turcz. in China against the background of climate change

Gao, Peng; Si, He; Zhao, Qian; Li, Gang; Zhang, Xinfei; Guo, Minghao; Wang, Shiqiang; Niu, Junfeng; Wang, Zhezhi

doi:10.1007/s11258-023-01312-6

Cited by 5 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Various environmental factors play a role in influencing the distribution of T. chinense , although only a subset significantly influences its habitat. Among these factors, water-related environmental factors (Bio18) have the greatest influence on the distribution of T. chinense under current climate conditions, which aligns with previous studies 3 . T. chinense is commonly found in shaded or humid areas and is not tolerant to drought.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…Biomod2 was utilized to predict the distribution of T. chinense in Asia, and the results were not completely consistent with the regional niche results predicted by Tang et al and P. Gao et al 3 , 5 using the MAXENT model. It is speculated that there are four reasons for this result.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

“…Secondly, the use of ensemble species distribution model can reduce the instability of a single model 58 , 59 . Third, there is a serious bias in the occurrence data used by Tang and Gao et al in constructing the model 3 , 5 . Our field investigation found T. chinense also distribute in the high latitude areas in the northern of China, contrasting with the limited or absent occurrence data in these regions in the mentioned studies.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The response of vegetation to climate change and the regional changes in plant distribution due to climate are important research areas 1 , 2 . Projections indicate that global warming will lead to an average surface temperature increase of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, significantly impacting terrestrial ecosystems and increasing the risk of species extinction 3 , 4 . To adapt to these changing conditions, plants can modify their ecological niche and distribution areas to match the new environment 5 , 6 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Distribution and protection of Thesium chinense Turcz. under climate and land use change

Zhang,

Chen,

Zhou

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Wild medicinal plants are prominent in the field of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), but their availability is being impacted by human activities and ecological degradation in China. To ensure sustainable use of these resources, it is crucial to scientifically plan areas for wild plant cultivation. Thesium chinense, a known plant antibiotic, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we employed three atmospheric circulation models and four socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of T. chinense. We also examined changes in its suitable area using the Biomod2 package. Additionally, we utilized the PLUS model to project and analyze future land use changes in climate-stable regions for T. chinense. Our planning for wild tending areas of T. chinense was facilitated by the ZONATION software. Over the next century, the climate-stable regions for T. chinense in China is approximately 383.05 × 104 km2, while the natural habitat in this region will progressively decline. Under the current climate conditions, about 65.06% of the habitats in the high suitable areas of T. chinense are not affected by future land use changes in China. Through hotspot analysis, we identified 17 hotspot cities as ideal areas for the wild tending of T. chinense, including 6 core hotspot cities, 6 sub-hotspot cities, and 5 fringe hotspot cities. These findings contribute to a comprehensive research framework for the cultivation planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Distribution and protection of Thesium chinense Turcz. under climate and land use change

Zhang,

Chen,

Zhou

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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“…Among the many environmental factors that affect the growth and development of T. chinense , only a few major environmental factors affect its distribution. Under the current climate conditions, water-related environmental factors (Bio18) have the highest impact on the distribution of T. chinense , which is basically consistent with the research of Gao et al (P. Gao et al, 2023). T. chinense is mostly found in shaded or humid areas, and has poor drought resistance.…”

Section: The Influence Of Environmental Factors On T Chinense's Distr...supporting

confidence: 84%

The wild tending framework of medicinal plants constructed based on Biomod2 and PLUS model: A case study of Thesium chinense Turcz. in China

Zhang

Chen

Zhou

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Wild medicinal plants dominate the market of Traditonal Chinese Medicine (TCM). However, the intensification of human activities and ecological deterioration have caused a gradual depletion or extinction of wild medicinal plant resources in China. Scientific planning of wild tending areas is a priority to realize the sustainable utilization of wild medicinal plant resources. Thesium chinense, a known “plant antibiotic”, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we combined three atmospheric circulation models and four common socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to explore the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. chinense and the changes in the suitable area under the complete niche based on the Biomod2 package. The PLUS model was used to predict and analyze the land use change trend in the climate-stable areas of T. chinense in the future. And the wild tending areas of T. chinense were planned using ZONATION software. In the next hundred years, the climate-stable areas of T. chinense in China will mainly be distributed in humid and subhumid area, and the natural habitat areas of T. chinense in this region will decrease year by year. Hot spot analysis showed that Qiqihar, Chifeng, Zunyi, and other counties were the most suitable for the wild tending of T. chinense. These results can provide a comprehensive research framework for wild tending planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.

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Distribution model and prediction of the tree fern Alsophila costularis Baker (Cyatheaceae) in China

Wang,

Li,

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climatic change is a challenge for plant conservation due to plants' limited dispersal abilities. The survival and sustainable development of plants directly depend on the availability of suitable habitats. In this study, we employed an optimized MaxEnt model to evaluate the relative contribution of each environmental variable and predict the suitable habitat for Alsophila costularis under past, current, and future periods, which is an endangered relict tree fern known as a living fossil. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid‐Holocene scenarios, we adopted two atmosphere–ocean general circulation models: CCSM4 and MIROC‐ESM. The BCC‐CSM2‐MR model was used for future projections. The results revealed that temperature annual range (Bio7) contributed most to the model construction with an optimal range of 13.74–22.44°C. Species distribution modeling showed that current suitable areas were mainly located in most areas of Yunnan, most areas of Hainan, most areas of Taiwan, southeastern Tibet, southwestern Guizhou, western Guangxi, southern Sichuan, and southern Guangdong, with an area of 35.90 × 104 km2. The suitable habitat area expanded northward in Yunnan from the Last Interglacial to the LGM under the CCSM4 model, while a significant contraction toward southwestern Yunnan was found under the MIROC‐ESM model. Furthermore, the potential distributions during the Mid‐Holocene were more widespread in Yunnan compared to those under current period. It is predicted that in the future, the range will significantly expand to northern Yunnan and western Guizhou. Almost all centroids of suitable habitats were distributed in southeastern Yunnan under different periods. The stable areas were located in southwestern Yunnan in all scenarios. The simulation results could provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of reasonable conservation and management measures to mitigate the effects of future climate change for A. costularis.

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Prediction of potentially suitable distribution areas of Thesium chinense Turcz. in China against the background of climate change

Cited by 5 publications

References 45 publications

Distribution and protection of Thesium chinense Turcz. under climate and land use change

Distribution and protection of Thesium chinense Turcz. under climate and land use change

The wild tending framework of medicinal plants constructed based on Biomod2 and PLUS model: A case study of Thesium chinense Turcz. in China

Distribution model and prediction of the tree fern Alsophila costularis Baker (Cyatheaceae) in China

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