Prediction of permeability in a tight sandstone reservoir using a gated network stacking model driven by data and physical models

Abstract

Introduction: Permeability is one of the most important parameters for reservoir evaluation. It is commonly measured in laboratories using underground core samples. However, it cannot describe the entire reservoir because of the limited number of cores. Therefore, petrophysicists use well logs to establish empirical equations to estimate permeability. This method has been widely used in conventional sandstone reservoirs, but it is not applicable to tight sandstone reservoirs with low porosity, extremely low permeability, and complex pore structures.Methods: Machine learning models can identify potential relationships between input features and sample labels, making them a good choice for establishing permeability prediction models. A stacking model is an ensemble learning method that aims to train a meta-learner to learn an optimal combination of expert models. However, the meta-learner does not evaluate or control the experts, making it difficult to interpret the contribution of each model. In this study, we design a gate network stacking (GNS) model, which is an algorithm that combines data and model-driven methods. First, an input log combination is selected for each expert model to ensure the best performance of the expert model and selfoptimization of the hyperparameters. Petrophysical constraints are then added to the inputs of the expert model and meta-learner, and weights are dynamically assigned to the output of the expert model. Finally, the overall performance of the model is evaluated iteratively to enhance its interpretability and robustness.Results and discussion: The GNS model is then used to predict the permeability of a tight sandstone reservoir in the Jurassic Ahe Formation in the Tarim Basin. The case study shows that the permeability predicted by the GNS model is more accurate than that of other ensemble models. This study provides a new approach for predicting the parameters of tight sandstone reservoirs.