Prediction of maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 using machine learning

RETRACTED: Forecasting Solar Cycle 25 Using an Optimized Long Short-term Memory Mode Based on F10.7 and Sunspot Area Data

“…The classic method for forecasting the peak amplitude of the next solar activity is the precursor method, which is based on the observed values of solar activity or magnetic field in a chosen period (Helal & Galal 2013;Hawkes & Berger 2018;Hazra & Choudhuri 2019). Several machine-learning methods were used by Dani & Sulistiani (2019) to compare the forecast peak amplitude of SSN for SC-25, and they found that the results were different among these methods, namely 159.4 ± 22.3, 95.5 ± 21.9, 110.2 ± 12.8, and 93.7 ± 23.2 respectively for linear regression (LR), radial basis function, random forest (RF) and support vector machine, and that the peak occurring times of SC-25 would be 2023 September, 2024 December, 2024 December, and 2024 July. Other methods based on a nonlinear model (Sarp et al 2018;Kitiashvili 2020), statistical methods that used feature parameters of the solar cycle to forecast the behavior of SC-25 (Li et al 2015;Singh & Bhargawa 2017;Kakad et al 2020), and spectral methods (Rigozo et al 2011) also obtained different forecast results of the maximum SSN or the peak amplitude of SC-25 with the occurring time.…”

Sunspot Maximum of 2025-a Foreboding of the Next Influenza Pandemic?

“…The question that is now raised is: what should we do? In a recent paper it was argued that a surviellance of the stratosphere for viral infall, as well as a close monitoring of the circulating virus at ground level will be fully justifified -both from what we know from past and on the basis of plausible models of space-driven pandemic events [15]. If new virions are introduced into the stratosphere from a cometary source/sources the early detection of a new subtype at say 50 km will give enough time before particles of viral sizes fall to ground level.…”

“…As a consequence, we could reasonably expect a new influenza pandemic event to occur during the next maximum of the sunspot cycle (cycle 25). The current predictions of this cycle are shown in Fig 1 indicating a peak between 2023 and 2025[15]. The fact that this peak follows the deepest sunspot minimum in over a 100 years should also be bourne in mind in making an assessment of what could be expected.…”

Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Using an Optimized Long Short-Term Memory Mode with F10.7

“…Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network was used in combination with other models for the prediction of SC-25 (Pala and Atici, 2019;Benson et al, 2020;Lee, 2020;Prasad et al, 2022). Several machine learning methods were used by Dani and Sulistiani (2019) to compare the predicted peak amplitude of SSN for SC-25, and the obtained results were different among these methods, namely: 159.4 ± 22.3, 95.5 ± 21.9, 110.2 ± 12.8, and 93.7 ± 23.2 respectively for Linear Regression (LR), Radial Basis Function (RBF), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), and peak occurring times of SC-25 would be September 2023, December 2024, December 2024 and July 2024. Other methods based on a non-linear model (Kitiashvili, 2020;Sarp et al, 2018), statistical methods used feature parameters of the solar cycle to predict the behavior of SC-25 (Li, Feng, and Li, 2015;Singh and Bhargawa, 2017;Kakad, Kumar, and Kakad, 2020), and spectral methods (Rigozo et al, 2011) also obtained different prediction results of the maximum SSN or the peak amplitude of SC-25 with the occurring time.…”