Prediction of Losses Due to Dust in PV Using Hybrid LSTM-KNN Algorithm: The Case of Saruhanlı

Abstract

Sustainable and renewable energy sources are of great importance in today’s world. In this respect, renewable energy sources are used in many fields of technology. In order to minimize dust on PV panels and ensure their sustainability, power losses due to dust must be estimated accurately. In this way, the efficiency of a sustainable energy source will increase and serious economic savings can be achieved. In this study, a hybrid deep learning model was designed to predict losses caused by dust in PV panels installed in the Manisa Saruhanlı district. The hybrid deep learning model consists of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and K-Nearest-Neighbors (KNN) algorithms. The performance of the proposed hybrid deep learning model was compared with LSTM and KNN algorithms. Sensitivity analysis was performed to statistically evaluate the prediction results. The input variables of the models were time, sunshine duration, humidity, ambient temperature and solar radiation. The output variable was the losses caused by dust in the PV panels. Hybrid LSTM-KNN, LSTM and KNN models predicted losses caused by dust in PV panels with 98.22%, 95.51% and 61.49% accuracy. The hybrid LSTM-KNN model predicted losses caused by dust in PV panels with higher accuracy than other models. Using LSTM and KNN algorithms together improved the performance of the hybrid deep learning model. With sensitivity analysis, it was found that solar radiation is the most important variable affecting the losses caused by dust in PV panels.