Prediction of Load Capacity in Microgrid by Multiple Regression Method

Marchenko, Rostyslav Serhiiovych; Klen, Kateryna Serhiivna

doi:10.20535/2523-4455.mea.236697

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 9 publications

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“…Одним із варіантів прогнозування потужностей в системах електроживлення є метод моделювання електричних процесів [9]. Він дає змогу передбачати поведінку системи в режимі реального часу і є менш складним ніж математичні методи прогнозування [10]- [12].…”

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Simulation Modeling of an Autonomous Power Supply System Based on Solar Panels in Real Time

Andriienko

Klen

2022

Microsyst., Electron. & Acoust.

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During the last decade, solar energy showed rapid development. So, in 2021, production volumes increased by 19 percent, which is the highest rate among renewable energy sources, and in the last ten years, by 714. And this growth will continue. And according to forecasts, similar development will continue in the coming years, the projected growth of total capacity over the next five years is from 112 to 188 percent, and the growth of investments until 2050 will be 68 percent. This, as well as the introduction of green tariffs, which encourage the use of renewable energy sources by purchasing surplus energy obtained with their help, increases the number of installed solar power plants and power supply systems based on them. But the use of renewable energy sources obliges users to report on the projected level of production. Computer modeling is one of the methods of analyzing processes in electrical systems in real time and is less complicated than mathematical calculation methods. The work presents a structural diagram of an autonomous power supply system based on solar panels, as well as a description of its main elements. The stability of the solar panel-boosting pulse-width converter system was investigated using the Nyquist criterion. A block diagram of the method of selecting the maximum power from the solar panel based on the current at the output of the solar panel, which is used in the simulation, was also given, a set of positions of the maximum power points depending on the insolation with a discreteness of 50 W/m^2 is shown, the function of the dependence of the current on insolation using the cubic interpolation method, compared the results obtained using this dependence with previous data, estimated the average absolute error of the method. A model of the stand-alone power system is assembled in MATLAB Simulink, which can be used for real-time forecasting. Simulations were carried out using data for a day from a real household and insolation data from the LARES laboratory in Zagreb with a discreteness of 1 min, oscillograms of the output power of the solar panel, power consumption, as well as an oscillogram of the change in the state of battery charge during the day with such data are given. The simulation results were analyzed and recommendations were given regarding the behavior of users of such an autonomous power supply system during certain periods of the day when the generation capacity exceeds consumption or vice versa, affecting the state of battery charge.

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Section: вступunclassified

Simulation Modeling of an Autonomous Power Supply System Based on Solar Panels in Real Time

Andriienko

Klen

2022

Microsyst., Electron. & Acoust.

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Simulation modeling of a power supply system taking into account the stochastic nature of energy generation and consumption processes

Klen,

Navrotskyi,

Zhuikov

2023

Comput. probl. electr. eng.

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This paper presents the calculation of parameters and simulation modeling of the power supply system based on solar panels, taking into account the stochastic nature of the processes of energy generation and consumption. Through simulation in MATLAB® Simulink, the performance of the power supply system under the change of solar insolation and load power was evaluated. The method of controlling a bidirectional converter based on the calculation of the difference in Shannon entropy of energy generation and consumption flows is described. This method allows for increasing the efficiency of energy use in the system by reducing the difference between the entropy values at the input and output of the system. It also allows for reducing the duration of time intervals when the energy storage in the system is uncontrollable while being fully charged or fully discharged. Modeling of electrical processes in the power supply system was carried out with the implementing the control either considering the entropy difference or without it. To evaluate the impact of the accuracy of determining the entropy values on the modeling results, the entropy for different interval durations was calculated. The results of modeling the power supply system were analyzed using solar insolation and load power data with a 1-minute discreteness.

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Prediction of Load Capacity in Microgrid by Multiple Regression Method

Cited by 2 publications

References 9 publications

Simulation Modeling of an Autonomous Power Supply System Based on Solar Panels in Real Time

Simulation Modeling of an Autonomous Power Supply System Based on Solar Panels in Real Time

Simulation modeling of a power supply system taking into account the stochastic nature of energy generation and consumption processes

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