Prediction of groundwater drawdown using artificial neural networks

Abstract

Groundwater drawdown is typically measured using pumping tests and eld experiments; however, the traditional methods are time-consuming and costly when applied to extensive areas. In this research, a methodology is introduced based on arti cial neural network (ANN)s and eld measurements in an alluvial aquifer in the north of Iran. First, the annual drawdown as the output of the ANN models in 250 piezometric wells was measured, and the data were divided into three categories of training data, cross-validation data, and test data. Then, the effective factors in groundwater drawdown including groundwater depth, annual precipitation, annual evaporation, the transmissivity of the aquifer formation, elevation, distance from the sea, distance from water sources (recharge), population density, and groundwater extraction in the in uence radius of each well (1000 m) were identi ed and used as the inputs of the ANN models. Several ANN methods were evaluated, and the predictions were compared with the observations. Results show that, the modular neural network (MNN) showed the highest performance in modeling groundwater drawdown (Training R-sqr = 0.96, test R-sqr = 0.81). The optimum network was tted to available input data to map the annual drawdown across the entire aquifer. The accuracy assessment of the nal map yielded favorable results (R-sqr = 0.8). The adopted methodology can be applied for the prediction of groundwater drawdown in the study site and similar settings elsewhere.