Prediction of global daily solar radiation using higher order statistics

Safi, Saïd; Zeroual, Abdelouhab; Hassani, Moha M’Rabet

doi:10.1016/s0960-1481(01)00153-7

Cited by 61 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…There are also significant but smaller (negative) autocorrelations for the first two lags, and afterwards they are not significantly different from zero. Despite the different locations and weather conditions, these autocorrelations for lag 1 or lag 2 are also consistent with past evidence, as cited, for example, in Safi et al (2002). The lags of the underlying VAR have to be chosen such that there is no mutual autocorrelation of the shocks.…”

supporting

confidence: 77%

“…Therefore, German solar power generation may be influenced by the dynamic behavior of solar irradiance. Moreover, Safi et al (2002) identified autocorrelations in daily solar radiation at a radiometric station in Marrakesh, Morocco, while Boland (1995) found autoregressive processes for the residuals in daily solar radiation at several locations distributed over large parts of Australia. The latter findings indicate that the dynamic structure of solar irradiance could also be present in a larger geographic area as a whole.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Dynamic analysis of the German day-ahead electricity spot market

Paschen

2016

Energy Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractThis paper analyzes the dynamic behavior of day-ahead spot prices in the German electricity spot market due to positive structural shocks in wind and solar power. It uses a dynamic structural vector autoregressive model to estimate the related structural impulse response functions. The estimates suggest that wind power shocks have a more prolonged negative effect on spot prices than solar power shocks. These may be explained by significant autocorrelations of wind power for larger lags. The total negative merit order effect of a solar power shock, however, is larger. One reason might be that solar power shocks coincide with demand peaks. Past empirical results show differences in the total average negative merit order effects. The inherently dynamic nature of wind and solar power could explain these differences because the dynamics, which are ignored by past studies on the subject using static ordinary least squares estimations, could be transferred to the merit order effects.

show abstract

supporting

confidence: 77%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic analysis of the German day-ahead electricity spot market

Paschen

2016

Energy Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Mavromatis & Hansen 2001), linear interpolation techniques (Grant et al 2004, Soltani et al 2004), higher order statistics (Safi et al 2002), neural networks (Reddy & Ranjan 2003), and empirical approaches (e.g. Mavromatis & Jagtap 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of solar radiation and its application to crop simulation models in Greece

Mavromatis¹

2008

Clim. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Lack of data on site-specific daily solar radiation (R g ) is a significant impediment for most crop modeling applications. For this reason, 5 methods for estimating R g were tested: the Ångström-Prescott equation (AP), the Supit -van Kappel formula (SK) and 3 temperature-based methods: Campbell-Donatelli model, Hargreaves equation, and piecewise multiple linear regressions with a breakpoint (PLR). To overcome the lack of long and continuous time series of R g measurements at multiple sites, satellite-derived R g from the HelioClim-1 database were tested against observations from 2 stations, and then interpolated for 12 additional stations. When sunshine duration data were available, the AP equation was best, because it (1) produced intercepts and slopes closest to zero and unity, respectively and (2) had the lowest relative RMSE (9 to 18.6%). When cloud cover observations and data on maximum and minimum temperatures were available, the SK equation was equally effective as AP in most assessment metrics. When the only data for a site were daily maximum and minimum temperatures, the PLR approach with a breakpoint, which reflects the value at which the response of daily R g changes as a function of the extraterrestrial solar radiation R A and the diurnal temperature range, performed best. The mean relative RMSE of the PLR approach was < 3.7% higher than that of AP. The SK equation provided the most suitable simulation of measured R g for the CERES-Wheat crop model, while among the temperature-based methods PLR produced the smallest yield errors. Future validation efforts should explore the validity of the PLR model in other regions and under regimes with greater availability of R g data KEY WORDS: Solar radiation estimation · Crop simulation models · Piecewise multiple linear regression · GreeceResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

show abstract

“…It is then understandable that new models and improvements to existing modeling techniques are continually proposed which intend to improve estimates of solar radiation values with the use of more readily available meteorological variables [22,25,26].…”

Section: Estimation Of Radiationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar Radiation: Models and Measurement Techniques

Pandey

Katiyar

2013

Journal of Energy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In order to grasp the significance of the work accomplished by the author, it is necessary to keep abreast of the present developments in this field. The research work reported in the paper is an attempt to get knowledge to assess the solar energy potential for practical and efficient utilization in India. Our work is centered on estimating realistic values of solar (global and diffuse) radiation on horizontal and tilted surfaces using measured meteorological data and geographical and geometrical parameters for India.

show abstract

Prediction of global daily solar radiation using higher order statistics

Cited by 61 publications

References 12 publications

Dynamic analysis of the German day-ahead electricity spot market

Dynamic analysis of the German day-ahead electricity spot market

Estimation of solar radiation and its application to crop simulation models in Greece

Solar Radiation: Models and Measurement Techniques

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About