Prediction of Geomagnetic Storm Strength From Inner Heliospheric in Situ Observations

Kubicka, Manuel; Möstl, Christian; Amerstorfer, Tanja; Boakes, Peter; Li, Feng; Eastwood, J. P.; Törmänen, O.

doi:10.3847/1538-4357/833/2/255

Cited by 34 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 62 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We are fully aware that such constraints are currently not practicable for real time CME forecasting. However, we have shown the potential for using magnetometer observations near the Sun‐Earth line previously from Venus orbit (Kubicka et al, ), and we need to study how such observations, if available in real time, would enhance space weather forecasts. The idea of using near real‐time data along the Sun‐Earth line for space weather forecasting has a long history (e.g., Lindsay et al, ) but could become revived soon with the advent of interplanetary small satellites.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE

et al. 2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is currently severely limited by our inability to predict the magnetic field configuration in the CME magnetic core and by observational effects of a single spacecraft trajectory through its 3‐D structure. CME magnetic flux ropes can lead to continuous forcing of the energy input to the Earth's magnetosphere by strong and steady southward‐pointing magnetic fields. Here we demonstrate in a proof‐of‐concept way a new approach to predict the southward field B z in a CME flux rope. It combines a novel semiempirical model of CME flux rope magnetic fields (Three‐Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection) with solar observations and in situ magnetic field data from along the Sun‐Earth line. These are provided here by the MESSENGER spacecraft for a CME event on 9–13 July 2013. Three‐Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection is the first such model that contains the interplanetary propagation and evolution of a 3‐D flux rope magnetic field, the observation by a synthetic spacecraft, and the prediction of an index of geomagnetic activity. A counterclockwise rotation of the left‐handed erupting CME flux rope in the corona of 30° and a deflection angle of 20° is evident from comparison of solar and coronal observations. The calculated Dst matches reasonably the observed Dst minimum and its time evolution, but the results are highly sensitive to the CME axis orientation. We discuss assumptions and limitations of the method prototype and its potential for real time space weather forecasting and heliospheric data interpretation.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE

et al. 2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…On the other hand, it is not necessarily the crucial piece of information about the event we want to know. For example, if B z is forecasted to become strong and southward, and remain so for a prolonged period, the precise timing of this is of secondary importance (e.g., Kay et al, ; Kubicka et al, ; Riley et al, ; Savani et al, ). Similarly, if you can predict that B z will remain zero, or only show positive excursions, then the timing of this matters little.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Mays²,

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME‐driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid‐2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME‐shock arrival times—in an average sense—to within ±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of −1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of the various models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

show abstract

“…We number the events (1–20) in chronological order of their launch times; the additional events correspond to those numbered 2, 3, 9, 10, 11, 15, 19, and 20. Event number 10 is a CME‐CME interaction event in June 2012 for which the CME‐ICME relation has been clarified in several previous studies (e.g., James et al, ; Kubicka et al, ; Palmerio et al, ; Srivastava et al, ). Event number 18 is a lineup event which was also partly observed by MErcury Surface Space ENvironment, Geochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER), situated only a few degrees away from the Sun‐Earth line (Möstl et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Coronal Magnetic Structure of Earthbound CMEs and In Situ Comparison

et al. 2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Predicting the magnetic field within an Earth‐directed coronal mass ejection (CME) well before its arrival at Earth is one of the most important issues in space weather research. In this article, we compare the intrinsic flux rope type, that is, the CME orientation and handedness during eruption, with the in situ flux rope type for 20 CME events that have been uniquely linked from Sun to Earth through heliospheric imaging. Our study shows that the intrinsic flux rope type can be estimated for CMEs originating from different source regions using a combination of indirect proxies. We find that only 20% of the events studied match strictly between the intrinsic and in situ flux rope types. The percentage rises to 55% when intermediate cases (where the orientation at the Sun and/or in situ is close to 45°) are considered as a match. We also determine the change in the flux rope tilt angle between the Sun and Earth. For the majority of the cases, the rotation is several tens of degrees, while 35% of the events change by more than 90°. While occasionally the intrinsic flux rope type is a good proxy for the magnetic structure impacting Earth, our study highlights the importance of capturing the CME evolution for space weather forecasting purposes. Moreover, we emphasize that determination of the intrinsic flux rope type is a crucial input for CME forecasting models.

show abstract

Prediction of Geomagnetic Storm Strength From Inner Heliospheric in Situ Observations

Cited by 34 publications

References 62 publications

Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE

Forward Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection Flux Ropes in the Inner Heliosphere with 3DCORE

Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard

Coronal Magnetic Structure of Earthbound CMEs and In Situ Comparison

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About