Prediction of distant metastasis and specific survival prediction of small intestine cancer patients with metastasis: A population‐based study

Xu, Jinyi; Yao, Z H; Liao, Guo‐Shiou; Ouyang, Xin; Mao, Shengxun; Cao, Jiaqing; Lai, Bin

doi:10.1002/cam4.6166

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…These compelling results provide clinicians with evidence to effectively persuade hesitant patients about the substantial benefits of surgery and chemotherapy. It is widely believed that older age in duodenal cancer patients with DM is associated with a poorer OS prognosis than in younger patients[ 14 ]. Our study affirmed that older patients indeed had a higher likelihood of experiencing a poorer OS.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, there is a scarcity of studies offering dependable data regarding the association between clinicopathological characteristics and metastatic patterns in duodenal cancer. Furthermore, there is a lack of established predictive models for determining the likelihood of DM in duodenal cancer or for predicting the prognosis of patients with duodenal cancer and DM[ 14 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk factors, prognostic factors, and nomograms for distant metastasis in patients with diagnosed duodenal cancer: A population-based study

Shang,

Xu,

Zhai

et al. 2024

World J Gastrointest Oncol

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BACKGROUND Duodenal cancer is one of the most common subtypes of small intestinal cancer, and distant metastasis (DM) in this type of cancer still leads to poor prognosis. Although nomograms have recently been used in tumor areas, no studies have focused on the diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of DM in patients with primary duodenal cancer. AIM To develop and evaluate nomograms for predicting the risk of DM and personalized prognosis in patients with duodenal cancer. METHODS Data on duodenal cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for DM in patients with duodenal cancer, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors in duodenal cancer patients with DM. Two novel nomograms were established, and the results were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS A total of 2603 patients with duodenal cancer were included, of whom 457 cases (17.56%) had DM at the time of diagnosis. Logistic analysis revealed independent risk factors for DM in duodenal cancer patients, including gender, grade, tumor size, T stage, and N stage (P < 0.05). Univariate and multivariate COX analyses further identified independent prognostic factors for duodenal cancer patients with DM, including age, histological type, T stage, tumor grade, tumor size, bone metastasis, chemotherapy, and surgery (P < 0.05). The accuracy of the nomograms was validated in the training set, validation set, and expanded testing set using ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA curves. The results of Kaplan-Meier survival curves (P < 0.001) indicated that both nomograms accurately predicted the occurrence and prognosis of DM in patients with duodenal cancer. CONCLUSION The two nomograms are expected as effective tools for predicting DM risk in duodenal cancer patients and offering personalized prognosis predictions for those with DM, potentially enhancing clinical decision-making.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk factors, prognostic factors, and nomograms for distant metastasis in patients with diagnosed duodenal cancer: A population-based study

Shang,

Xu,

Zhai

et al. 2024

World J Gastrointest Oncol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…These ndings provide compelling evidence for clinicians to effectively persuade hesitant patients about the substantial bene ts of surgery and chemotherapy. It is generally believed that duodenal cancer patients with DM of older age have a poorer OS prognosis than younger patients [14] . Our study showed that older patients were more likely to have a poorer OS.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Factors, Prognostic Factors, and Nomograms for Distant Metastasis in Patients with Diagnosed Duodenal cancer: A Population- Based Study

Shang,

Xu,

zhai

et al. 2023

Preprint

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INTRODUCTION: Duodenal cancer is one of the most common subtypes of small intestinal cancer, and distant metastasis (DM) in this type of cancer still leads to poor prognosis. Although nomograms have recently been used in tumor areas, no studies have focused on the diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of DM in patients with primary duodenal cancer. Methods Data on duodenal cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2019 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for DM in patients with duodenal cancer, and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors in duodenal cancer patients with DM. Two novel nomograms were established, and the results were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Result A total of 2,603 patients with duodenal cancer were included; and 457 patients (17.56%) had DM at the time of diagnosis. Independent risk factors for DM in patients with duodenal cancer include sex, grade, tumor size, T stage, and N stage. The independent prognostic factors for duodenal cancer patients with DM are age, histological type, T stage, tumor grade, tumor size, bone metastasis chemotherapy, and surgery. The results of ROC curves, calibration, DCA, and Kaplan–Meier (K-M) survival curves in the training, validation, and expanded testing sets confirmed that the two nomograms could precisely predict the occurrence and prognosis of DM in patients with duodenal cancer. Conclusion two nomograms are expected to be effective tools for predicting the risk of DM in patients with duodenal cancer and personalized prognosis prediction for patients with DM, which may benefit clinical decision-making.

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“…DPCs in the early stage are mistaken for chronic inflammation or benign protuberant lesions due to their small size, as determined by CT, endoscopic examination and other methods. Furthermore, the incidence of small intestinal carcinoma and DPC has increased annually, and the mortality rate has increased by 26% [ 3 ]. As many patients are asymptomatic until advanced disease detection through imaging examination, diagnostic delays often occur, leading to a poor prognosis [ 4 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As many patients are asymptomatic until advanced disease detection through imaging examination, diagnostic delays often occur, leading to a poor prognosis [ 4 ]. Previous studies have shown that more than 56% of patients exhibit locally advanced tumours or distant metastases at initial diagnosis, and those with advanced tumours only have a 5-year survival rate of 42.6% [ 3 ]. For papilla tumours in situ without lymphovascular invasion (LVI) or lymph node metastasis (LNM), endoscopic papillectomy is safe and curative; however, when tumours exhibit LNM or LVI, surgery is considered the first modality without considering endoscopy [ 5 , 6 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radiomics analysis based on CT for predicting lymph node metastasis and prognosis in duodenal papillary carcinoma

Tang,

Wu,

Jiang

et al. 2024

Insights Imaging

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Objectives Radiomics has been demonstrated to be strongly associated with TNM stage and patient prognosis. We aimed to develop a model for predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) and survival. Methods For radiomics texture selection, 3D Slicer 5.0.3 software and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm were used. Subsequently, the radiomics model, computed tomography (CT) image, and clinical risk model were compared. The performance of the three models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), calibration plots, and clinical impact curves (CICs). Results For the LNM prediction model, 224 patients with LNM information were used to construct a model that was applied to predict LNM. According to the CT data and clinical characteristics, we constructed a radiomics model, CT imaging model and clinical model. The radiomics model for evaluating LNM status showed excellent calibration and discrimination in the training cohort (AUC = 0.926, 95% CI = 0.869–0.982) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.872, 95% CI = 0.802–0.941). DeLong’s test demonstrated that the difference among the three models was significant. Similarly, DCA and CIC showed that the radiomics model has better clinical utility than the CT imaging model and clinical model. Our model also exhibited good performance in predicting survival—in line with the findings of the model built with clinical risk factors. Conclusions CT radiomics models exhibited better predictive performance for LNM than models built based on clinical risk characteristics and CT imaging and had comparative clinical utility for predicting patient prognosis. Critical relevance statement The radiomics model showed excellent performance and discrimination for predicting LNM and survival of duodenal papillary carcinoma (DPC). Key Points LNM status determines the most appropriate treatment for DPC. Our radiomics model for evaluating the LNM status of DPC performed excellently. The radiomics model had high sensitivity and specificity for predicting survival, exhibiting great clinical value. Graphical Abstract

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Prediction of distant metastasis and specific survival prediction of small intestine cancer patients with metastasis: A population‐based study

Cited by 4 publications

References 34 publications

Risk factors, prognostic factors, and nomograms for distant metastasis in patients with diagnosed duodenal cancer: A population-based study

Risk factors, prognostic factors, and nomograms for distant metastasis in patients with diagnosed duodenal cancer: A population-based study

Risk Factors, Prognostic Factors, and Nomograms for Distant Metastasis in Patients with Diagnosed Duodenal cancer: A Population- Based Study

Radiomics analysis based on CT for predicting lymph node metastasis and prognosis in duodenal papillary carcinoma

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