Prediction of Design Typhoon Wind Speeds and Profiles Using Refined Typhoon Wind Field Model

Huang, Wenhan; Xu, You Lin; Li, Chi Wai; Liu, H. J.

doi:10.18057/ijasc.2011.7.4.6

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Figure 12 shows the wind radii of a typical typhoon, where the higher the level of the wind circle, the larger the wind speed; and the smaller the radius of the wind circle, the nearer to the center of the wind circle. Many typhoon detection and forecasting models are based on wind velocity field [46][47][48], and the relationship between wind speed and water vapor during the period of a typhoon will be discussed later. Figure 13 is the time series of PWV over the HKSL station and wind speed observed at the anemometer observatory (see Figure 1, the distance between both stations is about 6 km) during the four-day period of 15-18 September.…”

Section: Relationship Between Variations In Pwv and Atmospheric Parammentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time GNSS-Derived PWV for Typhoon Characterizations: A Case Study for Super Typhoon Mangkhut in Hong Kong

Zhang

et al. 2019

Remote Sensing

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Typhoons can be serious natural disasters for the sustainability and development of society. The development of a typhoon usually involves a pre-existing weather disturbance, warm tropical oceans, and a large amount of moisture. This implies that a large variation in the atmospheric water vapor over the path of a typhoon can be used to study the characteristics of the typhoon. This is the reason that the variation in precipitable water vapor (PWV) is often used to capture the signature of a typhoon in meteorology. This study investigates the usability of real-time PWV retrieved from global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) for typhoons’ characterizations, and especially, the following aspects were investigated: (1) The correlation between PWV and atmospheric parameters including pressure, temperature, precipitation, and wind speed; (2) water vapor transportation during a typhoon period; and (3) the correlation between the movement of a typhoon and the transportation of water vapor. The case study selected for this research was Super Typhoon Mangkhut that occurred in mid-September 2018 in Hong Kong. The PWV time series were obtained from a conversion of GNSS-derived zenith total delays (ZTDs) using observations at 10 stations selected from the Hong Kong GNSS continuously operating reference stations (CORS) network, which are also located along the path of the typhoon. The Bernese GNSS Software (ver. 5.2) was used to obtain the ZTDs; and the root mean square (RMS) of the differences between the GNSS-ZTDs and International GNSS Service post-processed ZTDs time series was less than 8 mm. The RMS of the differences between the GNSS-PWVs (i.e., the ZTDs converted PWVs) and radiosonde-derived PWVs (RS-PWVs) time series was less than 2 mm. The changes in PWV reflect the variation in wind speed during the typhoon period to a certain degree, and their correlation coefficient was 0.76, meaning a significant positive correlation. In addition, a new approach was proposed to estimate the direction and speed of a typhoon’s movement using the time difference of PWV arrival at different sites. The direction and speed estimated agreed well with the ones published by the China Meteorological Administration. These results suggest that GNSS-derived PWV has a great potential for the monitoring and even prediction of typhoon events, especially for near real-time warnings.

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Section: Relationship Between Variations In Pwv and Atmospheric Parammentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-Time GNSS-Derived PWV for Typhoon Characterizations: A Case Study for Super Typhoon Mangkhut in Hong Kong

Zhang

et al. 2019

Remote Sensing

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“…Unlike the Monte Carlo simulation method 7 , by using Latin hypercube sampling method, the correlations among typhoon key parameters can be maintained satisfactorily in generating the simulated typhoon key parameters.…”

Section: Improve Typhoon Simulation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An improved typhoon simulation method based on Latin hypercube sampling method

Sun

2022

Sci Rep

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In order to further improve the prediction accuracy of typhoon simulation method for extreme wind speed in typhoon prone areas, an improved typhoon simulation method is proposed by introducing the Latin hypercube sampling method into the traditional typhoon simulation method. In this paper, the improved typhoon simulation method is first given a detailed introduction. Then, this method is applied to the prediction of extreme wind speeds under various return periods in Hong Kong. To validate this method, two aspects of analysis is carried out, including correlation analysis among typhoon key parameters and prediction of extreme wind speeds under various return periods. The results show that the correlation coefficients among typhoon key parameters can be maintained satisfactorily with this improved typhoon simulation method. The results show that the improved typhoon simulation method can generate the correlations among all typhoon key parameters satisfactorily. Compared with the traditional typhoon simulation method, the improved typhoon simulation method has higher accuracy in predicting the typhoon extreme wind speed in Hong Kong, increasing by about 8% and 11% respectively at 200 m height and gradient height.

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“…To delve into the discrepancies in wind speed and direction variation between altitudes of 10m and 70m, further analysis was conducted on the mesoscale system characteristics before and after typhoon transit, utilizing NCEP reanalysis data at a 2.5°×2.5° resolution four times a day. Focusing on the distribution of meridional (north-south) and zonal (east-west) winds U and V near the latitude and longitude (120°E, 33°N) of the wind tower, several key findings emerged [31].…”

Section: Influence Of Mesoscale System On Wind Speed Of Measuring Tow...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Coastal Wind Speed During Typhoon Season: A Case Study of Typhoon Lekima

Wang,

Fu,

Bashir

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The development and utilization of wind energy is of great significance to the sustainable development of China's economy and the realization of the goal of "dual carbon". Under the typhoon system, the randomness and volatility of wind speed become an important basis for affecting the energy efficiency utilization and design of wind turbines. Therefore, based on wind speed and wind direction data at 10m, 30m, 50m and 70m heights of a wind power tower in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, this paper analyzes the change characteristics of wind speed and wind direction by using BFAST method and Hurst index. Based on typhoon body data, topographic data and mesoscale system wind direction data, the causes of the occurrence and development of wind speed and wind direction of wind tower are further analyzed, and a conclusion is drawn: (1) In BEAST method, there are 5, 5, 6 and 6 change points at the height of 10m, 30m, 50m and 70m respectively. Among them, the change points at the height of 10m, 30m and 50m all change before and after node 325, and the change time point at the height of 70m is inconsistent with other heights. Hurst index results show that the inconsistency at 70m altitude is stronger than that at other altitudes. (2) The wind direction sequence at 10m, 30m, 50m and 70m altitude is fitted by stages, and the direction of wind direction is SE-E-SE-SW-W-NW, where, At the height of 70m, the deviation of the fitting trend line from other altitudes is larger in the wind speed strengthening stage and weakening stage. (3) The wind speed at the height of 10m and 70m has different response degrees to the typhoon body. The correlation between the wind speed and the distance between the wind measurement tower and the typhoon near the center is stronger at the height of 10m than at the height of 70m. The surface type and the wind direction of the mesoscale system also have certain effects on the wind speed and direction. In this paper, the change characteristics and influencing factors of wind speed and direction of wind tower are studied, which provides methods and theoretical support for the study of short-term wind speed when typhoon passes through, and provides reliable support for the selection of wind power forecast indicators and the selection and design of wind turbines under extreme gale weather systems.

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Prediction of Design Typhoon Wind Speeds and Profiles Using Refined Typhoon Wind Field Model

Cited by 7 publications

References 22 publications

Real-Time GNSS-Derived PWV for Typhoon Characterizations: A Case Study for Super Typhoon Mangkhut in Hong Kong

Real-Time GNSS-Derived PWV for Typhoon Characterizations: A Case Study for Super Typhoon Mangkhut in Hong Kong

An improved typhoon simulation method based on Latin hypercube sampling method

Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Coastal Wind Speed During Typhoon Season: A Case Study of Typhoon Lekima

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