Prediction of daily global solar radiation in different climatic conditions using metaheuristic search algorithms: a case study from Türkiye

Abstract

Today’s many giant sectors including energy, industry, tourism, and agriculture should closely track the variation trends of solar radiation to take more benefit from the sun. However, the scarcity of solar radiation measuring stations represents a significant obstacle. This has prompted research into the estimation of global solar radiation (GSR) for various regions using existing climatic and atmospheric parameters. While prediction methods cannot supplant the precision of direct measurements, they are invaluable for studying and utilizing solar energy on a global scale. From this point of view, this paper has focused on predicting daily GSR data in three provinces (Afyonkarahisar, Rize, and Ağrı) which exhibit disparate solar radiation distributions in Türkiye. In this context, Gradient-Based Optimizer (GBO), Harris Hawks Optimization (HHO), Barnacles Mating Optimizer (BMO), Sine Cosine Algorithm (SCA), and Henry Gas Solubility Optimization (HGSO) have been employed to model the daily GSR data. The algorithms were calibrated with daily historical data of five input variables including sunshine duration, actual pressure, moisture, wind speed, and ambient temperature between 2010 and 2017 years. Then, they were tested with daily data for the 2018 year. In the study, a series of statistical metrics (R2, MABE, RMSE, and MBE) were employed to elucidate the algorithm that predicts solar radiation data with higher accuracy. The prediction results demonstrated that all algorithms achieved the highest R2 value in Rize province. It has been found that SCA (MABE of 0.7023 MJ/m2, RMSE of 0.9121 MJ/m2, and MBE of 0.2430 MJ/m2) for Afyonkarahisar province and GBO (RMSE of 0.8432 MJ/m2, MABE of 0.6703 MJ/m2, and R2 of 0.8810) for Ağrı province are the most effective algorithms for estimating GSR data. The findings indicate that each of the metaheuristic algorithms tested in this paper has the potential to predict daily GSR data within a satisfactory error range. However, the GBO and SCA algorithms provided the most accurate predictions of daily GSR data.