Prediction of COVID-19 New Cases Using Multiple Linear Regression Model Based on May to June 2020 Data in Ethiopia

Abstract

The aims of this study was to predict COVID-19 new cases using multiple linear regression model based on May to June 2020 data in Ethiopia. The COVID-19 cases data was collected from the Ethiopia Ministry of Health Organization Facebook page. Pearson’s correlation analysis and linear regression model were used in the study. And, the COVID-19 new cases was positively correlated with the number of days, daily laboratory tests, new cases of males, new cases of females, new cases from Addis Ababa city, and new cases from foreign natives. In the multiple linear regression model, COVID-19 new cases was significantly predicted by the number of days at 5%, the number of daily laboratory tests at 10%, and the number of new cases from Addis Ababa city at 1% levels of significance. Then, the researchers recommended that Ethiopian Government, Ministry of Health, and Addis Ababa city administrative should give more awareness and protections for societies, and they should open again more COVID-19 laboratory testing centers. And, this study will help the government and doctors in preparing their plans for the next times.

Forecasting Model of the Effect of Vaccination on the Number of Covid-19 Cases in West Java Province

“…The correlation coefficient can be used to show the linear relationship between two continuous variables in a multiple linear regression model (Argawu et al 2021). The estimated correlation coefficient formula is as follows:…”

“…Rath et al (2020) predicted active Covid-19 cases in Odisha and India with the Y variable used as the number of active Covid-19 cases in Odisha and India while the X variables used were the number of positive Covid-19 cases, Covid-19 recovery cases, and Covid-19 death cases. Argawu et al (2021) predicted new Covid-19 cases using multiple linear regression in Ethiopia with the Y variable used as the number of new Covid-19 cases in Ethiopia and the X variables used were the number of days, daily laboratory tests, and the number of new patients from Addis Ababa city.…”