Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects-September Update

Newell, T.A.

doi:10.1101/2020.10.15.20213223

Cited by 3 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…During the study period, COVID-19 incidence in prisons was 956 per 100 000 person-weeks, which was more than 6 times higher than among the general Massachusetts population. Although the degree to which detected cases reflects true prevalence in these 2 populations is uncertain, our study’s finding that incarcerated persons had a higher incidence of COVID-19 than the general public is consistent with similar research at both state and federal levels . Our study suggests that interventions that mitigate COVID-19 risk in surrounding communities, and, by extension, among prison staff members, could serve multiple public health priorities for the incarcerated population and the population at large.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

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Association Between Prison Crowding and COVID-19 Incidence Rates in Massachusetts Prisons, April 2020-January 2021

et al. 2021

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IMPORTANCE COVID-19 incidence and mortality are higher among incarcerated persons than in the general US population, but the extent to which prison crowding contributes to their COVID-19 risk is unknown.OBJECTIVE To estimate the associations between prison crowding, community COVID-19 transmission, and prison incidence rates of COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSThis was a longitudinal ecological study among all incarcerated persons in 14 Massachusetts state prisons between April 21, 2020, and January 11, 2021.EXPOSURES The primary exposure of interest was prison crowding, measured by (1) the size of the incarcerated population as a percentage of the prison's design capacity and (2) the percentage of incarcerated persons housed in single-cell units. The analysis included the weekly COVID-19 incidence in the county where each prison is located as a covariate. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESThe primary outcome was the weekly COVID-19 incidence rate as determined by positive SARS-CoV-2 tests among incarcerated persons at each prison over discrete 1-week increments.RESULTS There was on average 6876 people incarcerated in 14 prisons during the study period. The median level of crowding during the observation period ranged from 25% to 155% of design capacity. COVID-19 incidence was significantly higher in prisons where the incarcerated population was a larger percentage of the prison's design capacity (incidence rate ratio [IRR] per 10-percentage-point difference, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03-1.27). COVID-19 incidence was lower in prisons where a higher proportion of incarcerated people were housed in single-cell units (IRR for each 10-percentage-point increase in single-cell units, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.73-0.93). COVID-19 transmission in the surrounding county was consistently associated with COVID-19 incidence in prisons (IRR [for each increase of 10 cases per 100 000 person-weeks in the community], 1.06; 95% CI, 1.05-1.08). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEThis longitudinal ecological study found that within 14 Massachusetts state prisons, increased crowding was associated with increased incidence rates of COVID-19. Researchers and policy makers should explore strategies that reduce prison crowding, such as decarceration, as potential ways to mitigate COVID-19 morbidity and mortality among incarcerated persons.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…COVID-19 incidence in state and federal prisons is estimated to be more than 5 times higher than that in the general population . Similarly, age- and sex-adjusted COVID-19 mortality rates have been reported to be 2 to 3 times higher among incarcerated persons than in the general US population …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Association Between Prison Crowding and COVID-19 Incidence Rates in Massachusetts Prisons, April 2020-January 2021

et al. 2021

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“…Linear infection growth is a boundary separating accelerating and decaying infections. The prediction model has been described in detail (1,2) with monthly prediction updates since the July 27 model initiation for 10 US States (3,4).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Detailed explanation of the human behavior prediction model is included in reports (1) and (2), with update reports describing trends for August (3) and September (4). All data used for model development and model comparison are available to the general public (5, 6, 7).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects-October Update

Newell

2020

Preprint

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Control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission requires control of two human behaviors. A two-parameter, human behavior Covid-19 infection growth model continues to accurately predict total infections based on gross human interaction and local human interaction behaviors for 10 US States (NY, WA, GA, IL, MN, FL, OH, MI, CA, NC). Since prediction model initiation on July 27, 2020, total infections for 8 states have grown by more than 200%. Only New York (23% infection growth) and Florida (189% infection growth) have grown less.October displays combined impacts of increased social interactions as schools and businesses increase physical gatherings, coupled with climate dependent local interactions. The US, on average as of the end of October, has an Infection Parameter (IP) of 3.4 representing accelerating infection growth. Gross human interactions must be reduced by 15% or local interaction behavior (eg, face mask usage, ventilation) must be improved to reduce disease transmission efficiency by 27% in order to reach the linear infection growth boundary separating accelerating infection growth from decaying infection growth regions.Eastern States (NY and NC) have had mild fall temperatures, which increases outdoor activities and increases building fresh air ventilation rates that suppress virus transmission efficiency. Mild temperatures in southern States (GA, FL and CA) during October have also helped suppress virus transmission. Midwest States experienced highly elevated infection rates due to combined effects of school openings coupled with a truncated fall season. WA stayed in the beneficial 70F (22C) to 50F (10C) zone through October, with minimal accelerated infection growth, but is now entering its heating season with average outdoor temperatures below 50F that are contributing to increased disease transmission efficiency.

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COVID-19 Australia: Epidemiology Report 31: Fortnightly reporting period ending 6 December 2020

2020

Commun Dis Intell

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Nationally, COVID-19 notifications remained at low levels this fortnight. Testing rates also decreased during the surveillance period. The daily average number of cases was eight compared to an average of 11 cases for the previous fortnight. There were 109 cases of COVID-19 and no deaths this fortnight, bringing the cumulative case count to 28,049 and 908 deaths. New South Wales reported the highest proportion of cases again this fortnight (54%; 59/109), with the majority of these acquired overseas (97%; 57/59). Locally-acquired cases accounted for 5% (5/109) of all cases reported this fortnight, with one of these from an unknown source. FluTracking data indicated that 47% of people in the community with ‘fever and cough’ and 19% of those with ‘runny nose and sore throat’ were tested for SARS-CoV-2, which was a decrease from the previous reporting period. Testing rates decreased to 9.3 tests per 1,000 population per week during this reporting period, representing a 29% decrease in fortnightly tests conducted compared to the last reporting period. The overall positivity rate for the reporting period remains at 0.03%.

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Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects-September Update

Cited by 3 publications

References 6 publications

Association Between Prison Crowding and COVID-19 Incidence Rates in Massachusetts Prisons, April 2020-January 2021

Association Between Prison Crowding and COVID-19 Incidence Rates in Massachusetts Prisons, April 2020-January 2021

Prediction of Covid-19 Infections Through December 2020 for 10 US States Incorporating Outdoor Temperature and School Re-Opening Effects-October Update

COVID-19 Australia: Epidemiology Report 31: Fortnightly reporting period ending 6 December 2020

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