Prediction of Coalbed Methane Production in China Based on an Optimized Grey System Model

Zeng, Bo; Li, Hui

doi:10.1021/acs.energyfuels.0c04195

Cited by 37 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Analyzing the data characteristics of RFECC is beneficial for selecting the appropriate method from the existing forecasting methods. The gray prediction model has been widely used in energy prediction, such as natural gas [41], oil [42], coal [43], etc. Considering the complexity of RFECC calculation, the amount of data, and the difference in fossil energy statistics and measurement methods between China and the US, it is difficult to obtain reasonable prediction results with existing big data techniques or fuzzy logic, and the gray prediction method is a good attempt.…”

Section: The Prediction Model Of Gm-bp-svmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Study on Relative Fossil Energy Carrying Capacity in China and the United States

et al. 2021

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Based on resource carrying capacity, this study used the revised theory of relative resource carrying capacity (RRCC) and introduced an innovative concept of relative fossil energy carrying capacity (RFECC), which evaluates the degree of fossil energy sustainability based on the relationship between economy, population, and environment. This study took China and the United States as the study objects, took the whole country as the reference area, and calculated the RFECC of population, economic, and environmental resources from 2000 to 2018. Therefore, based on the comparative analysis, the following conclusions were drawn: (i) there is a big difference in the RFECC between China and the United States, which is manifested in the inverted U-shaped trend in China and the U-shaped trend in the United States; (ii) the relative fossil energy carrying states in China and the United States are different, mainly reflected in the economy and environment; (iii) the gap in RFECC between China and the United States has gradually widened; in general, China’s economic RFECC is better than that of the United States, while environmental RFECC and population RFECC in the United States is better than that of China; and (iv) coal and oil should be used as a breakthrough point for the sustainable fossil energy and sustainable development for China and the United States, respectively.

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Section: The Prediction Model Of Gm-bp-svmmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Study on Relative Fossil Energy Carrying Capacity in China and the United States

et al. 2021

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“…For the analysis and prediction of problems with "small data and uncertainty," Deng (1982) first introduced the grey system theory based on cybernetics in 1982. The grey system theory has been widely used in many fields so far, and it has successfully solved a large number of practical problems in production, social life, and scientific research (Zeng and Li 2021;Zeng et al 2020aZeng et al , 2020c, and gradually, it has been developed into an important mainstream modeling method. Ding et al (2017) forecasted the Chinese CO 2 emissions from fuel combustion based on the grey forecasting model.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

An improved multi-variable grey model for forecasting China’s finished products from comprehensive waste utilization

Gou

Zeng

Gong

2021

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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A reasonable prediction of the finished products from waste recycling and reprocessing is of great significance to the sustainable use of limited resources, the reduced pollution caused by waste, and the reflected comprehensive waste utilization (CWU) creativity. To this end, an improved multi-variable grey model was employed to forecast the finished products in China's CWU. Firstly, the degree of grey incidence was applied to select explanatory variables and eliminate multicollinearity between them. Then, compared with the traditional GM(1,N) model, the linear correction term and grey action quantity were added in the proposed improved model, and the response function and parameter estimation method of the improved model were deduced and proved. Thirdly, the finished products from CWU was simulated and predicted by the proposed model. The mean relative simulation percentage error of the improved model was only 0.0001%, in comparison with the ones obtained from the traditional GM(1,N) and the classical GM(1,1), which were 12.1232 and 8.8402%, respectively. Lastly, the results show that the finished products from CWU are mainly affected by the comprehensive utilization of general industrial solid waste and the number of industrial enterprises in CWU, and the future trends from 2020 to 2025 are unstable.

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“…According to equation (20), the total electricity consumption in China from 2018 to 2025 can be predicted, as shown in Table 4.…”

Section: Forecasting China's Total Electricity Consumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…e grey system theory, proposed by Professor Deng [15] in 1982, plays a key role in processing uncertain problems with poor information and small samples. After more than 30 years of development, many scholars have applied it to industry, agriculture, society, economy, energy, and other fields [16][17][18][19][20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Novel Extrapolation-Based Grey Prediction Model for Forecasting China’s Total Electricity Consumption

Yang

2021

Mathematical Problems in Engineering

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Accurately forecasting China’s total electricity consumption is of great significance for the government in formulating sustainable economic development policies, especially, China as the largest total electricity consumption country in the world. The calculation method of the background value of the GM(1, 1) model is an important factor of unstable model performance. In this paper, an extrapolation method with variable weights was used for calculating the background value to eliminate the influence of the extreme values on the performance of the GM(1, 1) model, and the novel extrapolation-based grey prediction model called NEGM(1, 1) was proposed and optimized. The NEGM(1, 1) model was then used to simulate the total electricity consumption in China and found to outperform other grey models. Finally, the total electricity consumption of China from 2018 to 2025 was forecasted. The results show that China’s total electricity consumption will be expected to increase slightly, but the total is still very large. For this, some corresponding recommendations to ensure the effective supply of electricity in China are suggested.

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Prediction of Coalbed Methane Production in China Based on an Optimized Grey System Model

Cited by 37 publications

References 33 publications

Comparative Study on Relative Fossil Energy Carrying Capacity in China and the United States

Comparative Study on Relative Fossil Energy Carrying Capacity in China and the United States

An improved multi-variable grey model for forecasting China’s finished products from comprehensive waste utilization

A Novel Extrapolation-Based Grey Prediction Model for Forecasting China’s Total Electricity Consumption

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