Prediction of 6-year risk of bladder cancer using the HUNT Lung Cancer Risk Model in ever-smokers: A HUNT study.

Abstract

e16581 Background: Bladder cancer is the 6th most common cancer in men and 17th most common cancer in women and the mortality is high when detected in advanced stage. Previous or current cigarette smoke is the main risk factor. There is no screening program for bladder cancer. Given the pathophysiological similarity with lung cancer, we postulated that a lung cancer risk model could work for bladder cancer. The validated HUNT Lung Cancer Risk Model (HUNT LCM) predicts lung cancer in 6 years with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.87. Here we aimed to test the performance of the HUNT LCM in the prospective HUNT2 cohort for a 6-year prediction of bladder cancer. Methods: The HUNT2 cohort from Norway, a prospective population study of 65 200 individuals 19-100 years of age, was followed up for a median of 15 years. This population was linked with the Norwegian Cancer Registry and all cases diagnosed with bladder cancer were registered. The HUNT Lung Cancer Model was used to predict risk of bladder cancer within 6 years. Results: In the HUNT2 cohort 38 846 ever-smokers were identified. 82.6% of those developing bladder cancer were ever-smokers. 31 269 had all the variables needed for the model and of those, 191 developed bladder cancer in six years. The HUNT Lung Cancer Model prediction of bladder cancer in 6 years AUC was 0.751. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first time a lung cancer risk prediction model has been applied to predict bladder cancer. The performance of the model is lower than for lung cancer but still has a good performance. This may open a path for screening and early detection of bladder cancer.