Prediction Model on Delivery Time in Display FAB Using Survival Analysis

Abstract

In the flat panel display industry, to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production, the scheduler and dispatching systems are major production management systems which control the order of facility production and the distribution of WIP (Work In Process). Especially the delivery time is a key factor of the dispatching system for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors of the delivery time and to build the delivery time forecasting model. To select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the mean square error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the statistics prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing the delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Recommendation of Personalized Surveillance Interval of Colonoscopy via Survival Analysis

“…예를 들어, 디스플레이 제조 공정에서 카세트 반송시간을 생 존분석 방법으로 예측하는 모형을 설계하여 반송지연을 줄임 으로써 설비 비가동과 생산성도 개선 가능하게 하였다 (Han, 2014). 경제분야에서는 기업의 생존함수를 추정 및 비교하고 생존함수에 영향을 끼치는 요인 크기를 추정하거나, 기업의 도산예측 모형에 적용하였다 (Lee, 2010).…”