Prediction Model for Cognitive Impairment among Disabled Older Adults: A Development and Validation Study

Abstract

Disabled older adults exhibited a higher risk for cognitive impairment. Early identification is crucial in alleviating the disease burden. This study aims to develop and validate a prediction model for identifying cognitive impairment among disabled older adults. A total of 2138, 501, and 746 participants were included in the development set and two external validation sets. Logistic regression, support vector machine, random forest, and XGBoost were introduced to develop the prediction model. A nomogram was further established to demonstrate the prediction model directly and vividly. Logistic regression exhibited better predictive performance on the test set with an area under the curve of 0.875. It maintained a high level of precision (0.808), specification (0.788), sensitivity (0.770), and F1-score (0.788) compared with the machine learning models. We further simplified and established a nomogram based on the logistic regression, comprising five variables: age, daily living activities, instrumental activity of daily living, hearing impairment, and visual impairment. The areas under the curve of the nomogram were 0.871, 0.825, and 0.863 in the internal and two external validation sets, respectively. This nomogram effectively identifies the risk of cognitive impairment in disabled older adults.