Prediction and Impact of Sea Level Rise on Properties and Infrastructure of Washington, DC

Abstract

The city of Washington, District of Columbia (DC) will face flooding, and eventual geographic changes, in both the short- and long-term future because of sea level rise (SLR) brought on by climate change, including global warming. To fully assess the potential damage, a linear model was developed to predict SLR in Washington, DC, and its results compared to other nonlinear model results. Using geographic information systems (GIS) and graphical visualization, analytical models were created for the city and its underlying infrastructure. Values of SLR used in the assessments were 0.1 m for the year 2043 and 0.4 m for the year 2150 to model short-term SLR; 1.0 m, 2.5 m, and 5.0 m were used for long-term SLR. All necessary data layers were obtained from free data banks from the U.S. Geological Survey and Washington, DC government websites. Using GIS software, inventories of the possibly affected infrastructure were made at different SLR. Results of the analysis show that low SLR would lead to a minimal loss of city area. Damages to the local properties, however, are estimated at an assessment value of at least US$2 billion based on only the direct losses of properties listed in real estate databases, without accounting for infrastructure damages that include military installations, residential areas, governmental property, and cultural institutions. The projected value of lost property is in excess of US$24.6 billion at 5.0 m SLR.

Pleistocene relative sea levels in the Chesapeake Bay region and their implications for the next century

“…Even the most conservative estimate of projected RSL rise poses significant threats to the Chesapeake Bay region. Bridges, military facilities, national monuments, and portions of the rapid transit system would be flooded in Washington D.C., and ~70,000 residents would be impacted by a 0.4 m rise in sea level (Ayyub et al, 2012). Island communities in Chesapeake Bay are particularly vulnerable to RSL rise.…”

Multihazard Scenarios for Analysis of Compound Extreme Events

“…In this study, we analyze compound flooding hazard (i.e., combined ocean and terrestrial flooding) in Washington, DC, United States. This area has a considerable number of infrastructure exposed to flooding in the Potomac River channel (Ayyub et al, ; Moftakhari et al, ). The dynamics of flooding is strongly determined by the nonlinear interactions between freshwater inflows and estuary water level (Hoitink & Jay, ) (see supporting information for detailed physical description of this interdependence).…”

Resilience of Infrastructure Systems to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Areas: Impacts, Adaptation Measures, and Implementation Challenges

“…Each approach has its merits and disadvantages. City planners and decision-makers need to choose an appropriate adaptation based on an evaluation of different factors such as population, city size, and significant features like heritage sites or political issues [4,53,61]. For road infrastructure, various adaptation measures can be implemented related to each of these approaches, as shown in Table 5.…”

“…Each adaptation measure has its own merits and costs. City planners and decision-makers need to choose appropriate methods based on the evaluation of different factors such as population, city size, and other considerations such as heritage sites or political issues [4,53,61]. (2) Information Gathering: Prior to the development and implementation of sea level rise adaptation measures, it is necessary to gather all the required information related to possible sea level rise scenarios and projections, various impacts, and feasible adaptation measures.…”

“…This information provides a baseline for prioritization of infrastructure facilities based on their vulnerability. For instance, [53] assessed the damages of basic infrastructures such as public buildings, streets, railroads, metro systems, public safety institutions (fire stations, police stations, hospitals), educational institutions and governmental institutions, in Washington, D.C., under different sea level rise scenarios using GIS software. This sort of analysis provided a practical assessment of important infrastructures vulnerable to flooding.…”