Prediction and analysis of long‐term variability of temperature and salinity in the Irish Sea

Young, Elaine; Holt, Jason

doi:10.1029/2005jc003386

Cited by 64 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(43 reference statements)

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“…The models were initialised using restart files provided by daily pre-operational models that run at the National Oceanography Centre as part of the Liverpool Bay Coastal Observatory . River flow inputs are long-term climatological mean daily values from a database of over 300 rivers (Young and Holt, 2007). The surface heat and salt fluxes are calculated internally using bulk formulae (see Sect.…”

Section: Polcomsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling temperature and salinity in Liverpool Bay and the Irish Sea: sensitivity to model type and surface forcing

et al. 2012

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Abstract. Three shelf sea models are compared against observed surface temperature and salinity in Liverpool Bay and the Irish Sea: a 7 km NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) model, and 12 km and 1.8 km POLCOMS (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System) models. Each model is run with two different surface forcing datasets of different resolutions.Comparisons with a variety of observations from the Liverpool Bay Coastal Observatory show that increasing the surface forcing resolution improves the modelled surface temperature in all the models, in particular reducing the summer warm bias and winter cool bias. The response of surface salinity is more varied with improvements in some areas and deterioration in others.The 7 km NEMO model performs as well as the 1.8 km POLCOMS model when measured by overall skill scores, although the sources of error in the models are different. NEMO is too weakly stratified in Liverpool Bay, whereas POLCOMS is too strongly stratified. The horizontal salinity gradient, which is too strong in POLCOMS, is better reproduced by NEMO which uses a more diffusive horizontal advection scheme. This leads to improved semi-diurnal variability in salinity in NEMO at a mooring site located in the Liverpool Bay ROFI (region of freshwater influence) area.

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Section: Polcomsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling temperature and salinity in Liverpool Bay and the Irish Sea: sensitivity to model type and surface forcing

et al. 2012

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“…The simulation used ERA40 forcing, lateral boundary conditions from a ∼1 • global model for 1958Smith and Haines, 2009) and river inputs (Young and Holt, 2007;grdc.bafg.de/). The overall pattern of across-shelfedge transport is a net downwelling circulation of about 1.2 Sv (1 Sv=10 6 m 3 /s).…”

Section: Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Deep ocean exchange with west-European shelf seas

2009

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Abstract. We review mechanisms and studies of exchange between the north-east Atlantic and the adjacent shelf seas. Well-developed summer upwelling and associated filaments off Portugal and north-west Spain give exchange O(3 m 2 /s per unit length of shelf). Prevailing westerly winds further north drive exchange O(1 m 2 /s). Poleward flow along most of the upper slope has associated secondary circulation O(1 m 2 /s), meanders and eddies. Eddies are shed from slope waters into the Bay of Biscay, and local exchanges occur at shelf spurs and depressions or canyons (e.g. dense-water cascading of order 1 m 2 /s). Tidal transports are larger, but their reversal every six hours makes exchange largely ineffective except where internal tides are large and non-linear, as in the Celtic Sea where solitons carry water with exchange O(1 m 2 /s). These various physical exchanges amount to an estimated 2-3 m 2 /s per unit length of shelf, between ocean and shelf. A numerical model estimate is comparable: 2.5×10 6 m 3 /s onto and off the shelf from Brittany to Norway. Mixing controls the seasonal thermocline, affecting primary production and hence fluxes and fate of organic matter. Specifically, CO 2 take-up by primary production, settling below the thermocline before respiration, and then off-shelf transport, make an effective shelf-sea "pump" (for CO 2 from the atmosphere to the deep ocean). However, knowledge of biogeochemical fluxes is generally sparse, giving scope for more measurements, model validation and estimates from models.

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“…For major rivers that were missing from this data set (e.g. along the French and Norwegian coast), data has been provided from an earlier climatology (Young and Holt, 2007;Vorosmarty et al, 1998). For each river, the specified depth of freshwater flux is dependent on the average ratio of runoff to tidal range, based on estuary classifications discussed in 25 …”

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confidence: 99%

AMM15: A new high resolution NEMO configuration for operational simulation of the European North West Shelf

Graham¹,

O’Dea²,

Holt³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper describes the next generation ocean forecast model for the European North West Shelf, which will become the basis of operational forecasts in 2018. This new system will provide a step change in resolution, and therefore our ability to represent small scale processes. The new model has a resolution of 1.5 km, compared with a grid spacing of 7 km in the current operational system. AMM15 (Atlantic Margin Model, 1.5 km) is introduced as a new regional configuration of NEMO v3.6. Here we describe the technical details behind this configuration, with modifications appropriate for the new high 5 resolution domain. Results from a 30 year non-assimilative run, using the AMM15 domain, demonstrate the ability of this model to represent the mean state and variability of the region.Overall, there is an improvement in the representation of the mean state across the region, suggesting similar improvements may be seen in the future operational system. However, the reduction in seasonal bias is greater off-shelf than on-shelf. In the North Sea, biases are largely unchanged. Since there has been no change to the vertical resolution or parameterisation 10 schemes, performance improvements are not expected in regions where stratification is dominated by vertical processes, rather than advection. This highlights the fact that increased horizontal resolution will not lead to domain-wide improvements. Further work is needed to target bias reduction across the North West Shelf region.

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Prediction and analysis of long‐term variability of temperature and salinity in the Irish Sea

Cited by 64 publications

References 27 publications

Modelling temperature and salinity in Liverpool Bay and the Irish Sea: sensitivity to model type and surface forcing

Modelling temperature and salinity in Liverpool Bay and the Irish Sea: sensitivity to model type and surface forcing

Deep ocean exchange with west-European shelf seas

AMM15: A new high resolution NEMO configuration for operational simulation of the European North West Shelf

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