Prediction and Adaptation of Military Natural Infrastructure in Response to Climate Change: Forest Modeling

Guertin, Patrick J.; Tweddale, Scott A.; Gertner, George Z.

doi:10.21236/ada586630

Cited by 2 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…We picked $500/ton as the current cost of commercial DAC. This value is not as high as several initial cost estimations ,, and is not as low as more ambitious estimates in the literature. ,,, Our cost assumption is inspired by the 2019 publicly stated cost of $500–$600/ton by Climeworks and it is above the estimated large-scale cost by the national academies report and Carbon Engineering. , …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…PV modules had to come down in cost more than a 100-fold to compete with conventional energy sources. − By contrast, air capture technology has a much shorter cost reduction journey to become competitive in carbon removal and carbon avoidance markets. Currently, a commercialized DAC plant in Switzerland captures CO 2 from air at the cost of $500-$600/ton . Considering a threshold for economic viability around $100/ton, ,− this means a cost reduction of less than 10-fold is sufficient for the economic viability of the technology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, a commercialized DAC plant in Switzerland captures CO 2 from air at the cost of $500-$600/ton . Considering a threshold for economic viability around $100/ton, ,− this means a cost reduction of less than 10-fold is sufficient for the economic viability of the technology. The much less challenging requirement for cost reductions compared to those of renewable energy sources represents a big advantage, and the purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment for possible DAC cost trajectories.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With the values established in Table , one can calculate the number n t of small farms that would need to be built before the cost of air capture reaches the target threshold. It is important to note that the major commercial DAC companies employed about 3000 tons of CO 2 per year DAC capacity by 2019. , As has been pointed out, the cost of an emerging technology may first increase before reductions through learning start. , The “pre-learning” phase could be different for every technology and it may be affected by Research and Development (R&D) before widespread implementation; , however, it is not added to the cumulative capacity in the learning curve equation. Our calculations are based on the available data from the Climeworks’ DAC process and since Climeworks and other DAC companies are already projecting cost reduction in the future generation of their technologies, , we assume DAC has successfully passed the prelearning phase.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This estimate for upfront investment costs is not unreasonable. Current startups have spent or are spending on this scale as is evidenced by recent capital raises by Carbon Engineering and Climeworks. , However, these investments are not meant to be recouped in this early stage but in a future stage when carbon reductions require the removal of billions of tons of CO 2 from the atmosphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Buying down the Cost of Direct Air Capture

Lackner

Azarabadi

2021

Ind. Eng. Chem. Res.

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Direct air capture (DAC) shows exceptional promise for carbon dioxide removal on the scale required to fulfill the Paris Agreement. Even though planetary limitations do not constrain the scale of DAC, the currently high cost puts its feasibility in question. By observing cost reduction pathways of similar technologies, this paper explores the cost reduction opportunities that result from learning-by-doing. We developed an analytical buy-down model to investigate what it would take to lower the cost of DAC to $100/ton CO2. Our goal is not to accurately predict future costs, but our analysis demonstrates that if DAC follows a path similar to that of comparable, successful technologies, a capital investment of several hundred million dollars could buy down the cost of DAC. This buy-down effort at a relatively low cost will quantify the learning potential of DAC and show whether its costs can be reduced (like solar photovoltaic modules) or whether despite the investment it remains expensive (like nuclear power generation).

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Buying down the Cost of Direct Air Capture

Lackner

Azarabadi

2021

Ind. Eng. Chem. Res.

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Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture and Sequestration Coupled to Low-Carbon Thermal Energy in the United States

McQueen

Psarras

Pilorgé

et al. 2020

Environ. Sci. Technol.

120

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Negative emissions technologies will play an important role in preventing 2 °C warming by 2100. The next decade is critical for technological innovation and deployment to meet mid-century carbon removal goals of 10−20 GtCO 2 /yr. Direct air capture (DAC) is positioned to play a critical role in carbon removal, yet remains under paced in deployment efforts, mainly because of high costs. This study outlines a roadmap for DAC cost reductions through the exploitation of low-temperature heat, recent U.S. policy drivers, and logical, regional end-use opportunities in the United States. Specifically, two scenarios are identified that allow for the production of compressed high-purity CO 2 for costs ≤$300/tCO 2 , net delivered with an opportunity to scale to 19 MtCO 2 /yr. These scenarios use thermal energy from geothermal and nuclear power plants to produce steam and transport the purified CO 2 via trucks to the nearest opportunity for direct use or subsurface permanent storage. Although some utilization pathways result in the re-emission of CO 2 and cannot be considered true carbon removal, they would provide economic incentive to deploying DAC plants at scale by mid-century. In addition, the federal tax credit 45Q was applied for qualifying facilities (i.e., producing ≥100 ktCO 2 /yr).

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Prediction and Adaptation of Military Natural Infrastructure in Response to Climate Change: Forest Modeling

Cited by 2 publications

References 3 publications

Buying down the Cost of Direct Air Capture

Buying down the Cost of Direct Air Capture

Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture and Sequestration Coupled to Low-Carbon Thermal Energy in the United States

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