Predicting vaping uptake, vaping frequency and ongoing vaping among daily smokers using longitudinal data from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Surveys

Abstract

Aim To assess (1) how far smoking patterns, depression and smoking-related beliefs and intentions predict vaping uptake, current vaping and vaping frequency among daily smokers; and (2) how far the aforementioned predictors and baseline vaping frequency predict current vaping among those who reported ever vaped. Design Analysis of data from six waves of a longitudinal survey over 8 years. Longitudinal associations between predictors and outcomes were examined using multi-level models. Setting United Kingdom, United States, Canada and Australia. Participants A total of 6296 daily smokers (53% females) who contributed data to at least two consecutive survey waves. Measurements The outcome variables were vaping uptake, vaping frequency and current vaping at follow-up. The key predictor variables, measured in previous waves, were time to first cigarette, cigarettes smoked per day, depressive symptoms, intention to quit smoking, quitting self-efficacy and worry about adverse health effects of smoking. Findings Number of cigarettes smoked daily was associated with (1) subsequent vaping uptake [odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.19, 2.39 for 30+ cigarette per day; reference category: 0-10 cigarettes] and (2) a higher frequency of current vaping (OR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.36, 2.85 for 30+ cigarettes). Intention to quit was associated with a higher frequency of current vaping (OR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.21, 1.82). Among those who reported ever vaped, higher baseline vaping frequency (OR = 11.98, 95% CI = 6.00, 23.93 for daily vaping at baseline; reference category: vaped less than monthly) predicted current vaping.Conclusion Among daily smokers, amount smoked and intention to quit smoking appear to predict subsequent vaping uptake. Vaping frequency at baseline appears to predict current vaping at follow-up.

Attitudinal and normative responses to advertising stimuli and vaping intentions

“…Empirical data have shown that attitude-relevant responses to tobacco portrayals can affect e-cigarette consumption (Chan et al, 2019; Dockrell et al, 2013; Popova et al, 2018). However, knowledge of how attitudinal components (cognitive and affective) and normative responses toward e-cigarette advertising may inform intentions to vape is limited.…”

“…The results also show that subjective norms interacted with affect to predict intention to vape among former smokers in Waves 1 and 2. As such beliefs about significant others’ vaping norms might strengthen positive emotions of former smokers who may decide to vape (Caponnetto et al, 2013; Chan et al, 2019). Likewise, findings from Waves 1 and 2 showed that never smokers are strengthened cognitively by subjective norms to predict intention to vape, which suggest that beliefs of referent others about vaping can support favorable thoughts of vaping.…”

“…The advertising literature describes how favorable attitudinal responses can be triggered by an advertising campaign exposure to affect behavioral outcomes like vaping (Lavidge & Steiner, 1961). Exposure to e-cigarette promotional campaigns may play a role in shaping smokers’ beliefs and norms of vaping, howbeit, empirical data to support how promotional stimuli may influence smokers’ intentions to vape is lacking (Chan et al, 2019; Popova et al, 2018). Essentially, little is known about how never- and former-smokers’ response to e-cigarette messages might shape their attitudes, norms, and future intentions to vape.…”

E-Liquid Flavor Preferences and Individual Factors Related to Vaping: A Survey among Dutch Never-Users, Smokers, Dual Users, and Exclusive Vapers

“…Although vaping prevalence in the Netherlands is currently rather low (3%) [1], the use of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) increased worldwide in recent years [2,3]. The majority of e-cigarette users are former or current smokers [4,5,6] and literature has showed that e-cigarette use (i.e., vaping) may be associated with smoking cessation and reduction [7,8]. In the Netherlands, e-cigarettes are more often used by daily smokers (12%) compared to non-daily smokers (4%).…”

Predicting the future of smoking in a rapidly evolving nicotine market‐place

“…However, that is precisely the challenge that investigators involved with the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Project have taken on as reported in this special issue of Addiction . This issue contains 13 papers spanning a wide range of topics from broad descriptions of NVPs and usage patterns, motivations for using vaping products, beliefs and attitudes about nicotine vaping and the impact of various policies on vaping and smoking behaviors, and the projected impact on population health outcomes .…”