2021
DOI: 10.1101/2021.03.08.21253109
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Predicting vaccine hesitancy from area-level indicators: A machine learning approach

Abstract: Vaccine hesitancy (VH) might represent a serious threat to the next COVID-19 mass immunization campaign. We use machine-learning algorithms to predict communities at a high risk of VH relying on area-level indicators easily available to policymakers. We illustrate our approach on data from child immunization campaigns for seven non-mandatory vaccines carried out in 6408 Italian municipalities in 2016. A battery of machine learning models is compared in terms of area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics… Show more

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Cited by 7 publications
(4 citation statements)
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“…The sole contextual factor suggested by our model was the economic level of the country where the students lived and studied. In agreement with this finding, Carrieri et al 2021 synthesized a machine-learning model for vaccine hesitancy among Italian municipalities' inhabitants, which indicated that socioeconomic indicators, e.g., the proportion of waste recycling and the employment rate, were the most powerful predictors of vaccine hesitancy at an area-level [69]. The household income was found to be a significant determinant for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among South African, Italian, and Portuguese adult populations during the pre-vaccination stage and the early stages of mass vaccination [70][71][72].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 84%
“…The sole contextual factor suggested by our model was the economic level of the country where the students lived and studied. In agreement with this finding, Carrieri et al 2021 synthesized a machine-learning model for vaccine hesitancy among Italian municipalities' inhabitants, which indicated that socioeconomic indicators, e.g., the proportion of waste recycling and the employment rate, were the most powerful predictors of vaccine hesitancy at an area-level [69]. The household income was found to be a significant determinant for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among South African, Italian, and Portuguese adult populations during the pre-vaccination stage and the early stages of mass vaccination [70][71][72].…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 84%
“…The World Health Organization recognizes that vaccine hesitancy remains one of the most significant health threats [12]. Scholars also argue that vaccine hesitancy represents a threat to the COVID-19 immunization campaigns [13], suggesting that public confidence in COVID-19 vaccine needs to be promoted. More efforts are being invested in studying vaccination intent as many anticipate that an effective roll-out of the vaccine will end the pandemic [14].…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…One study used a supervised machine-learning algorithm with multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to explore the predictive power of both non-clinical personal attitudes toward scientific information and the clinical experience of severe respiratory disease on the influenza vaccination rate; accordingly, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for this mixed clinical and non-clinical prediction method was 85%. 29 Carrieri et al 30 implemented the supervised random-forest machine-learning algorithm on area-level indicators of institutional and socioeconomic backgrounds to predict the vaccine hesitancy rate for Italian local authorities, thus helping public-health practitioners run targeted awareness campaigns. Their findings suggested that non-clinical features had the highest predictive powers in the random-forest algorithm, with an AUC of 0.836.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%