Predicting unemployment: Occupational aspiration–achievement discrepancy as a risk factor in Norwegian young adults

Abstract

Research on risk of unemployment has focused primarily on the importance of individual assets, such as level of education achieved and personal characteristics. This study investigated whether a discrepancy between current occupational position and occupational aspirations predicts unemployment. Achieving occupational aspirations may be highly important for young people in Western societies. The analyses were conducted using longitudinal survey data linked to register data on 1,681 Norwegian young adults. The results showed that being in an occupation with lower status than the occupation to which one aspires significantly predicts the risk of later unemployment. The findings accord with research suggesting that a mismatch between employees’ subjective expectations and their actual job situation has negative consequences. For example, failure to acquire a job that matches one's expectations may lead to unemployment either through proactive behaviour, such as quitting a current job to find a new one, or through giving up, such as withdrawing from work.

Career Compromises and Dropout from Vocational Education and Training in Germany.

“…Empirical support is provided by Carr (1997), who finds that the risk of developing mental health problems increases with the distance between the occupational status of aspired and actual position. Gjerustad (2016) further found that attaining a lower social status than expected increased the risk of unemployment. With this in mind, if the social status of the attained VET position falls below the aspired one, negative emotions arise that increase the risk of dropping out of VET.…”

“…Empirical studies investigating career outcomes found that unmet aspirations are associated with lower levels of career satisfaction, work adjustment and work motivation (Ashforth and Saks, 2000;Creed and Gagliardi, 2015;Irving and Montes, 2009;Tsaousides and Jome, 2008;Turnley and Feldman, 2000). Career compromise was further related to increased sick absence and risk of unemployment (Carr, 1997;Gjerustad, 2016;Gjerustad and Von Soest, 2011).…”

Pushing Higher or Lower? Divergent Parental Expectations and Compromises in Occupational Choice

“…In this phase, adolescents aim to realize their occupational aspirations, but many do not succeed (Ahrens et al, 2021;Schels & Abraham, 2021). While there are some studies showing that unfulfilled occupational aspirations are associated with an increased risk of dropping out of VET (Ernst & Spevacek, 2012), unemployment (Gjerustad, 2016), depression, and job dissatisfaction (Creed & Blume, 2013;Hardie, 2014), few address the underlying circumstances and the compromises made.…”