Predicting Trade Expansion under FTAs and Multilateral Agreements

DeRosa, Dean A.; Gilbert, John

doi:10.2139/ssrn.835666

Cited by 12 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…See also DeRosa and Gilbert (2005) Source: Abbott et al (2006) Notes: a) Only the sector-disaggregated predicted effects on output were reported in the paper. The numbers reported here are calculated averages of the predicted effects on output, not GDP.…”

Section: Notesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam’s Past Trade Agreements

2009

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History, not predictions of CGE models or crosscountry growth studies, shows a strong relationship between trade and development. Vietnam's experience with bilateral trade agreements, comparing actual outcomes with predictions from existing models, demonstrates this and the limitations of research methodologies. Forecasts for Vietnam greatly underestimated the impact of past agreements because tariff reform was not the main factor driving adjustments. Addressing market imperfections through institutional reform was central to bringing output and trade expansion. Key questions for future research are: whether policy reform will result in new institutional changes, and how resulting incentives determine the evolution of investment by sector.

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Section: Notesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam’s Past Trade Agreements

2009

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“…Moreover, many have argued that CGE models have tended to underestimate considerably the effects of EIAs on trade (cf. DeRosa and Gilbert, 2005). Policy makers should be interested – and, we conjecture, are interested – in ex post quantitative estimates of the effects of an EIA on trade flows (and, subsequently, on production, incomes, etc.).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism

Baier

Bergstrand

Egger³

et al. 2008

World Economy

131

129

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This paper argues that the 'competitive liberalisation' of national governments of the past several decades has created a 'market' for regional economic integration agreements (EIAs). Evidence shows that countries that have selected into EIAs - such as free trade agreements - have 'chosen well' in the sense that the same economic characteristics that explain and predict bilateral EIAs also explain and predict bilateral trade flows. We show that previous ex post empirical evaluations of the effects of EIAs on trade have tended to underestimate the effects due to ignoring the (endogenous) self-selection bias of country pairs into EIAs. Accounting for this bias, we find that European economic integration had a much larger impact on trade over the period 1960-2000 than previously found, and other more recent EIAs have had economically and statistically significant effects on members' trade. The results shed further light on understanding the causes and consequences of the growth of regionalism. Copyright 2008 The Authors.

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“…5 SeeBhagwati et al (1998) andPanagariya (1999) for the spaghetti bowl phenomenon. 6 For methodological comparison between gravity and CGE analysis, seeBurfisher et al (2004) andDeRosa and Gilbert (2005). 7 SeeLloyd and MacLaren (2004) for a theoretical and empirical survey of RTAs with CGE modeling.…”

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confidence: 99%

East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?

Park¹

2006

Pacific Economic Review

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We quantitatively evaluate the effects different paths have on East Asian Regional Trade Agreements (RTA), which include expansionary, duplicate and overlapping RTAs. By applying a computable general equilibrium model analysis, we find that the static effect of existing, proposed and negotiating East Asian RTAs on world and members' welfare is sufficiently positive. It will lead to non-discriminatory global free trade, by triggering the domino effect of regionalism if the RTAs take an expansionary path by cooperating with each other, in contrast to competing to achieve the first mover advantage, or hub self-interest. Copyright 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Predicting Trade Expansion under FTAs and Multilateral Agreements

Cited by 12 publications

References 19 publications

Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam’s Past Trade Agreements

Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam’s Past Trade Agreements

Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism

East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?

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