Predicting the Timing of the Solar Cycle 25 Polar Field Reversal

Abstract

The process of the Sun’s polar field cancellation reversal commences with the emergence of new cycle Hale’s polarity active regions. Once the Sun undergoes polarity reversal, typically occurring near the peak of solar activity, it begins the process of accumulating the seed field for the forthcoming solar cycle. In recent years, the advective flux transport (AFT) model has proven highly effective in forecasting the progression of polar fields by leveraging observations of surface flows and magnetic flux emergence. In this study, we make use of the predictive capability of the AFT model to simulate the evolution of the polar fields and estimate the timing of the Solar Cycle 25 polarity reversal in both hemispheres of the Sun. We use the statistical properties of active regions along with Solar Cycle 13, which closely resembles the current solar cycle (Cycle 25), to generate synthetic active regions in order to simulate future magnetic flux emergence in AFT to predict the evolution of the polar field. Based on our simulations, we anticipate that the northern hemisphere of the Sun will undergo a polarity reversal between 2024 June and November, with the center of our distribution at 2024 August. In the southern hemisphere, we anticipate a polarity reversal between 2024 November and 2025 July, centered around 2025 February. Additionally, assuming that the reversal of the axial dipole moment coincides with the peak of the solar cycle, our findings indicate that Cycle 25 is expected to peak in 2024 (likely between 2024 April and August).