Predicting the Suitable Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Native Endangered Tree Tecomella undulata (Sm.) Seem. in Pakistan

Arshad, Fatimah Mohamed; Waheed, Muhammad; Fatima, Kaneez; Harun, Nidaa; Iqbal, Muhammad; Fatima, Kaniz; Umbreen, Shaheena

doi:10.3390/su14127215

Cited by 16 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…Despite their undeniable significance in defining the geographic range of many species, it is interesting to note that climatic influences are not the only ones causing species to disperse throughout any land area [ 14 ]. To forecast a more accurate image of the spatial distribution of the species, other ecological aspects such as ecological interactions, dispersal pattern and capability, habitat preference, resource distribution, and availability merit careful investigation and improved integration within SDMs [ 36 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SDM method, based on the niche conservatism theory, predicts the distribution of species along spatio-temporal gradients using a combination of climatic and other environmental variables with data on species distribution [ 13 ]. The influence of future climate change on a region of appropriate habitat for a species is frequently predicted using the niche modeling technique known as the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model [ 14 ]. The MaxEnt model can accurately forecast a small number of species distribution ranges, making it ideal for making predictions about some threatened or endemic animals.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Haq

Waheed

Ahmad

et al. 2023

Biology

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The distribution of large ungulates is more often negatively impacted by the changing climate, especially global warming and species with limited distributional zones. While developing conservation action plans for the threatened species such as the Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral Hardwicke 1825; a mountain goat that mostly inhabits rocky cliffs), it is imperative to comprehend how future distributions might vary based on predicted climate change. In this work, MaxEnt modeling was employed to assess the habitat suitability of the target species under varying climate scenarios. Such studies have provided highly useful information but to date no such research work has been conducted that considers this endemic animal species of the Himalayas. A total of 81 species presence points, 19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic variables were employed in the species distribution modeling (SDM), and MaxEnt calibration and optimization were performed to select the best candidate model. For predicted climate scenarios, the future data is drawn from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 of the 2050s and 2070s. Out of total 20 variables, annual precipitation, elevation, precipitation of driest month, slope aspect, minimum temperature of coldest month, slope, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature annual range (in order) were detected as the most influential drivers. A high accuracy value (AUC-ROC > 0.9) was observed for all the predicted scenarios. The habitat suitability of the targeted species might expand (about 3.7 to 13%) under all the future climate change scenarios. The same is evident according to local residents as species which are locally considered extinct in most of the area, might be shifting northwards along the elevation gradient away from human settlements. This study recommends additional research is conducted to prevent potential population collapses, and to identify other possible causes of local extinction events. Our findings will aid in formulating conservation plans for the Himalayan goral in a changing climate and serve as a basis for future monitoring of the species.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Haq

Waheed

Ahmad

et al. 2023

Biology

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“…This study included various bioclimatic variables ( Table 1 ) following Dong et al. (2023) and Arshad et al. (2022) .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the suitable cultivation areas of breadfruit crops Artocarpus altilis (Moraceae) under future climate scenarios in Central Java, Indonesia

Utomo,

Lestari,

Adiwibowo

et al. 2024

Front. Plant Sci.

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Artocarpus altilis, commonly known as breadfruit, is a potential crop adapted to a wide variety of climates and widely spread, including in Indonesia. However, information on how this species can adapt to climate change, in particular in Central Java, is still limited. In Indonesia, Central Java is the center for cultivation areas for many crop species to support the 145 million people living on Java Island. One of the potential crops being developed in Central Java is breadfruit. To assess the suitable cultivation areas for breadfruit, species distribution modeling (SDM) was used to predict the current and future (2050–2070) distribution of breadfruit. Two climate change scenarios, including optimistic RCP2.6 and pessimistic RCP8.5 models, were considered to represent future climate change impacts. Based on the results for both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, the breadfruit’s suitable cultivation areas will expand eastward. Implementing a mitigation climate change scenario and limiting the temperature increase to only 1°C under RCP2.6 will provide 270.967 km2 more of suitable cultivation areas for breadfruit in 2050 and 133.296 km2 in 2070. To conclude, this study provides important information on the status and potential cultivation areas for breadfruit, mainly in the Southeast Asia region. The identification of suitable areas will guide land conservation for breadfruit to support food security in this region.

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“…Additionally, the probability distribution obtained from Maxent has a concise mathematical expression, allowing direct generation of a habitat suitability map 17 . Each environmental variable's relative importance (%) can be evaluated using the software’s built-in jackknife test 18 . These MaxEnt capabilities provide an effectual way to predict the potential distribution of endangered species, which often have a limited number of observed occurrences and grow in remote areas with terrain and access constraints, making field data collection difficult 19 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting suitable habitat for the endangered tree Ormosia microphylla in China

Wei,

Wang,

Xie

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Climate change has significantly influenced the growth and distribution of plant species, particularly those with a narrow ecological niche. Understanding climate change impacts on the distribution and spatial pattern of endangered species can improve conservation strategies. The MaxEnt model is widely applied to predict species distribution and environmental tolerance based on occurrence data. This study investigated the suitable habitats of the endangered Ormosia microphylla in China and evaluated the importance of bioclimatic factors in shaping its distribution. Occurrence data and environmental variables were gleaned to construct the MaxEnt model, and the resulting suitable habitat maps were evaluated for accuracy. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent simulation quality (AUC = 0.962). The major environmental factors predicting the current distribution of O. microphylla were the mean diurnal range (bio2) and precipitation of the driest month (bio14). The current core potential distribution areas were concentrated in Guangxi, Fujian, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Hunan provinces in south China, demonstrating significant differences in their distribution areas. Our findings contribute to developing effective conservation and management measures for O. microphylla, addressing the critical need for reliable prediction of unfavorable impacts on the potential suitable habitats of the endangered species.

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Predicting the Suitable Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Native Endangered Tree Tecomella undulata (Sm.) Seem. in Pakistan

Cited by 16 publications

References 45 publications

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Predicting the suitable cultivation areas of breadfruit crops Artocarpus altilis (Moraceae) under future climate scenarios in Central Java, Indonesia

Predicting suitable habitat for the endangered tree Ormosia microphylla in China

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