Predicting the spatial distribution of gambling vulnerability: An application of gravity modeling using ABS Mesh Blocks

Abstract

To date, a method for the cost-effective prediction of venue catchments, and hence the spatial distribution of EGM harm, has not been available at the local level. As a first step in developing such a method, we explore the utility of a gravity modeling approach to predict the spatial distribution of venue catchments in a metropolitan region of the Northern Territory, Australia. Key inputs for the model presented include existing venue and recently released ABS Mesh Block data. We subsequently perform a combinatory analysis that integrates the predicted venue catchments with an Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) measure of social disadvantage to generate a gambling vulnerability surface. The advantages of this approach are that it allows visualization of catchments for effective communication, is based upon existing and current data that is available publicly through the ABS making it cost-effective, and provides a fine-grained local-level assessment of gambling vulnerability for applied policy purposes.

Vulnerability modeling of casinos in the United States: A case study of Philadelphia

“…Walker and Nesbit (2014) study potential agglomeration impacts of locating casinos in the same area. As previously mentioned Robitaille and Herjean (2008) and Doran and Young (2010) have studied vulnerability towards problem gaming in Canada and Australia respectively. These studies will be discussed at greater length below.…”

“…Doran and Young (2010) define problem gamblers as people with "difficulties in limiting money and/or time spent on gambling which leads to adverse consequences." Problem gaming is closely associated with accessibility to gambling venues .…”

“…Robitaille and Herjean (2008) and Doran and Young (2010) used a gravity model to determine areas of high accessibility to gambling based on casino attractiveness and distance from the casino. Using the gravity model tool extension, Market Analysis with the Huff Model, designed by Drew Flater, the probability for interaction with casinos from each census tract was calculated.…”

“…In 2008, Robitaille & Herjean used GIS methods to identify areas with high accessibility and significant vulnerability in various parts of Quebec. Doran and Young (2010) used a GIS approach that combined gravity modeling with a social disadvantage index to identify areas of high vulnerability in the Northern Territory of Australia. Vulnerable areas are those that exhibit both high levels of access to the casinos and high levels of social disadvantage.…”

“…International gambling researchers, such as Doran and Young (2010) and Robitaille and Herjean (2008) have demonstrated that increased accessibility to casinos will lead to an increased likelihood for problem gaming. Until recently in the United States, gambling was restricted to a limited number of locations (Wenz, 2014).…”