Predicting the Segment-Based Effects of Heterogeneous Traffic and Road Geometric Features on Fatal Accidents

Abstract

Inter-urban roads in Indonesia are characterized mainly by distinct road geometry and heterogeneous traffic features. The accident database from the Republic of Indonesia National Traffic Police recorded a substantial number of fatal accidents and fatalities along inter-urban roads. This study aimed to analyze the effects of traffic heterogeneity and road geometry features on fatal accidents along inter-urban roads in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Segment-based accident analysis was adopted to minimize bias due to the large standard deviations of road lengths. Vehicle-specific speeds, speed standard deviations, and volumes of six vehicle categories, road surface condition, and road geometry were the classified predicting factors. A machine learning technique was adopted to produce predictions of the classification problem. A total of 1,068 road segment observations from 2013-2016 were used to build and validate the model. Model generalization was carried out using the out-of-sample 2019 data. With 26 potential predictors, three machine learning techniques based on the ensembles of regression trees were used to avoid removing potential predictors altogether. The results indicate that road-related features show the greatest importance in predicting the number of fatal accidents. Among the speed features, the average speed of angkots and speed standard deviation of motorcycles showed the greatest importance. The average daily traffic (ADT) of pickups had the greatest importance among other vehicle-specific ADTs.

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