Predicting the river’s blue line for fish conservation

Sabo, John L.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1414385111

Cited by 9 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 13 publications

(11 reference statements)

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“…Apart from the scarcity of information on the spatial extent of intermittent streams, another concern about intermittent streams is the potential shift of current perennial streams to intermittent streams due to climate change and intense human activities, as it has been proven in several regions where the number of low-flow and non-flow days is increasing (King et al, 2015;Ruhí et al, 2016;Sabo, 2014). Our results suggest that the proportion of intermittent streams in length varied significantly during 1900-2016, ranging from 3% to nearly 100% and different years show different spatial patterns of flow intermittency, however, they do not show a clear reduction in flow permanency over time.…”

Section: Intermittent Stream Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of flow intermittency using spatially contiguous runoff data

Bond

Bunn

et al. 2018

Journal of Hydrology

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River channel drying caused by intermittent stream flow is a widely-recognized factor shaping stream ecosystems. There is a strong need to quantify the distribution of intermittent streams across catchments to inform management. However, observational gauge networks provide only point estimates of streamflow variation. Increasingly, this limitation is being overcome through the use of spatially contiguous estimates of the terrestrial water-balance, which can also assist in estimating runoff and streamflow at large-spatial scales. Here we proposed an approach to quantifying spatial and temporal variation in monthly flow intermittency throughout river networks in eastern Australia. We aggregated gridded (5x5 km) monthly water-balance data with a hierarchically nested catchment dataset to simulate catchment runoff accumulation throughout river networks from 1900-2016. We also predicted zero flow duration for the entire river network by developing a robust predictive model relating measured zero flow duration (% months) to environmental predictor variables (based 2 on 43 stream gauges). We then combined these datasets by using the predicted zero flow duration from the regression model to determine appropriate 'zero' flow thresholds for the modelled discharge data, which varied spatially across the catchments examined. Finally, based on modelled discharge data and identified actual zero flow thresholds, we derived summary metrics describing flow intermittency across the catchment (mean flow duration and coefficient-of-variation in flow permanence from 1900-2016). We also classified the relative degree of flow intermittency annually to characterise temporal variation in flow intermittency. Results showed that the degree of flow intermittency varied substantially across streams in eastern Australia, ranging from perennial streams flowing permanently (11-12 months) to strongly intermittent streams flowing 4 months or less of year. Results also showed that the temporal extent of flow intermittency varied dramatically inter-annually from 1900-2016, with the proportion of intermittent (weakly and strongly intermittent) streams ranging in length from 3 % to nearly 100% of the river network, but there was no evidence of an increasing trend towards flow intermittency over this period. Our approach to generating spatially explicit and catchment-wide estimates of streamflow intermittency can facilitate improved ecological understanding and management of intermittent streams in Australia and around the world.

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Section: Intermittent Stream Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of flow intermittency using spatially contiguous runoff data

Bond

Bunn

et al. 2018

Journal of Hydrology

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“…These mounting pressures are manifested in many Southwest rivers, as evidenced by decreasing streamflow and increasing frequencies and magnitudes of low flows, including zero‐flow events (Jaeger et al . ; Sabo ). Growing demands and climate‐change‐induced flow alteration may force even large dryland river systems into permanent hydrological drought (Dettinger et al .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…; Mims and Olden ). Many rivers in the American Southwest have witnessed decreasing streamflow and anomalous timing and magnitude of low‐flow events (Sabo ; Ruhí et al . ), yet frameworks for forecasting how climate and hydrological change may affect the future persistence of native and non‐native riverine biodiversity are limited.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result of increased aridity, flow regulation, and over-allocation of freshwater resources, reduced availability of surface water has become the "new normal" (Sabo et al 2010). These mounting pressures are manifested in many Southwest rivers, as evidenced by decreasing streamflow and increasing frequencies and magnitudes of low flows, including zero-flow events (Jaeger et al 2014;Sabo 2014). Growing demands and climate-change-induced flow alteration may force even large dryland river systems into permanent hydrological drought (Dettinger et al 2015).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Life-history strategies of aquatic species have evolved with natural flow regimes (Bunn and Arthington 2002; Lytle and Poff 2004), and evidence shows that altered flow regimes can compromise the long-term persistence of native faunas while concurrently offering opportunities to non-native species to invade previously unoccupied areas and to spread within already occupied areas (Bernardo et al 2003;Propst et al 2008;Mims and Olden 2013). Many rivers in the American Southwest have witnessed decreasing streamflow and anomalous timing and magnitude of low-flow events (Sabo 2014;Ruhí et al 2015), yet frameworks for forecasting how climate and hydrological change may affect the future persistence of native and non-native riverine biodiversity are limited. This is a critical knowledge gap, given the growing importance of these predictions for biodiversity conservation (IPCC 2014) and the need to quantify the effects of climate change and other stressors on biodiversity (McClure et al 2013;Staudt et al 2013).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Declining streamflow induces collapse and replacement of native fish in the American Southwest

Ruhí

Olden

Sabo

2016

Frontiers in Ecol & Environ

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Water scarcity is a global threat to freshwater biodiversity, but connecting variation in streamflow to viability of imperiled faunas remains a challenge. Here we combined time‐series modeling techniques on long‐term ecohydrological data to quantify flow–ecology relationships on native and non‐native riverine fish in the American Southwest, and simulate likely fish trajectories and “quasi‐extinction” risks in the near future. Streamflow has been declining conspicuously over the past 30 years in the Colorado and Rio Grande river basins, and year‐to‐year variation in streamflow influences the covariation between native and non‐native fish abundance. Risks of decline are high (>50%) for nearly three‐quarters of the modeled native species, and current trends in streamflow increase quasi‐extinction risk for natives (+8.5%) but reduce this risk for non‐natives (–5.9%). Hydrological changes need to be mitigated if we are to slow down the rapid replacement of native biodiversity with non‐native species in American Southwest rivers.

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Losing flow in free‐flowing Mediterranean‐climate streams

Carlson,

Ruhí,

Bogan

et al. 2024

Frontiers in Ecol & Environ

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Stream drying is happening globally, with important ecological and social consequences. Most examples of stream drying come from systems influenced by dam operations or those with highly exploited aquifers. Stream drying is also thought to be driven by anthropogenic climate change; however, examples are surprisingly limited. We explored flow trends from the five recognized Mediterranean‐climate regions of the world with a focus on unregulated (non‐dammed or non‐diverted) streams with long‐term gauge records. We found consistent evidence of decreasing discharge trends, increasing zero‐flow days, and steeper downward discharge trends in smaller basins. Beyond directional trends, many systems have recently undergone shifts in flow state, including some streams that have transitioned from perennial to intermittent flow states. Our analyses provide evidence of stream drying consistent with climate change but also highlight knowledge gaps and challenges in empirically and statistically documenting flow regime shifts. We discuss the myriad consequences of losing flow and propose strategies for improving detection of and adapting to flow change.

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Predicting the river’s blue line for fish conservation

Cited by 9 publications

References 13 publications

Quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of flow intermittency using spatially contiguous runoff data

Quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of flow intermittency using spatially contiguous runoff data

Declining streamflow induces collapse and replacement of native fish in the American Southwest

Losing flow in free‐flowing Mediterranean‐climate streams

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