Predicting the Remaining Time before Earthquake Occurrence Based on Mel Spectrogram Features Extraction and Ensemble Learning

Abstract

Predicting the remaining time before the next earthquake based on seismic signals generated in a laboratory setting is a challenging research task that is of significant importance for earthquake hazard assessment. In this study, we employed a mel spectrogram and the mel frequency cepstral coefficient (MFCC) to extract relevant features from seismic signals. Furthermore, we proposed a deep learning model with a hierarchical structure. This model combines the characteristics of long short-term memory (LSTM), one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (1D-CNN), and two-dimensional convolutional neural networks (2D-CNN). Additionally, we applied a stacking model fusion strategy, combining gradient boosting trees with deep learning models to achieve optimal performance. We compared the performance of the aforementioned feature extraction methods and related models for earthquake prediction. The results revealed a significant improvement in predictive performance when the mel spectrogram and stacking were introduced. Additionally, we found that the combination of 1D-CNN and 2D-CNN has unique advantages in handling time-series problems.