Predicting the recurrence of usual-type cervical adenocarcinoma using a nomogram based on clinical and pathological factors: a retrospective observational study

Abstract

BackgroundUsual-type cervical adenocarcinoma is the most frequent type of adenocarcinoma, and its prevalence is increasing worldwide. Tumor recurrence is the leading cause of mortality; therefore, recognizing the risk factors for cervical cancer recurrence and providing effective therapy for recurrent cervical cancer are critical steps in increasing patient survival rates. This study aimed to retrospectively analyze the clinicopathological data of patients with usual-type cervical adenocarcinoma by combining the diagnosis and treatment records after the initial treatment and recurrence.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed patients diagnosed with usual-type cervical adenocarcinoma who underwent radical hysterectomy and pelvic lymph node dissection at Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University between June 2013 and June 2022. We constructed a nomogram-based postoperative recurrence prediction model, internally evaluated its efficacy, and performed internal validation.ResultsThis study included 395 participants, including 87 individuals with recurrence. At a 7:3 ratio, the 395 patients were divided into two groups: a training set (n = 276) and a validation set (n = 119). The training set was subjected to univariate analysis, and the risk variables for recurrence included smoking, ovarian metastasis, International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging, lymphovascular space invasion, perineural invasion, depth of muscular invasion, tumor size, lymph node metastasis, and postoperative HPV infection months. The aforementioned components were analyzed using logistic regression analysis, and the results showed that the postoperative HPV infection month, tumor size, perineural invasion, and FIGO stage were independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence (p<0.05). The aforementioned model was represented as a nomogram. The training and validation set consistency indices, calculated using the bootstrap method of internal validation, were 0.88 and 0.86, respectively. The model constructed in this study predicted the postoperative recurrence of usual-type cervical cancer, as indicated by the receiver operating characteristic curve. The model demonstrated good performance, as evidenced by the area under the curve, sensitivity, and specificity values of 0.90, 0.859, and 0.844, respectively.ConclusionBased on the FIGO staging, peripheral nerve invasion, tumor size, and months of postoperative HPV infection, the predictive model and nomogram for postoperative recurrence of usual-type cervical adenocarcinoma are precise and effective. More extensive stratified evaluations of the risk of cervical adenocarcinoma recurrence are still required, as is a thorough assessment of postoperative recurrence in the future.