Predicting the recurrence of child abuse

Johnson, Will; L'Esperance, Jill

doi:10.1093/swra/20.2.21

Cited by 77 publications

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“…Risk assessment instruments were developed to aid caseworkers in identifying children who were at high risk for future abuse and neglect (Cash, 2001;Jagannathan & Camasso, 1996;Johnson & L'Esperance, 1984;Pecora, 1991). Although these assessments are now routinely administered during CPS investigations in 42 states (US Department of Health and Human Services, 2003); there remains no standard risk assessment model that clearly informs caseworker case planning and management (Schwalbe, 2004 Camasso & Jagannathan, 1995; Fluke et al, 2005;Hindley, Ramchandani, & Jones, 2006;Johnson & L'Esperance, 1984;Marks & McDonald, 1989;McDonald & Marks, 1991). Families are classified as low, moderate, or high risk for recurrence based on caseworker ratings of these items.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Families are classified as low, moderate, or high risk for recurrence based on caseworker ratings of these items. An early review comparing eight risk assessment instruments (McDonald & Marks, 1991) found that perpetrator access predicted recurrent maltreatment in three prospective studies (Baird, 1988;Johnson & L'Esperance, 1984; Weedon, Torti, & Zunder, 1988) and a large family size predicted reabuse in two prospective studies (Baird, 1988;Johnson & L'Esperance, 1984). Other risk assessment items that have been predictive of recurrent maltreatment include prior CPS involvement, parenting skills and expectations, parental substance use/abuse, parent/child relationship, treatment cooperation, history of domestic violence, and child's age/ability (Hindley et al, 2006;Lyons, Doueck, & Wodarski, 1996).…”

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confidence: 99%

“…severity), environment (e.g. social support, housing and financial stability), and level of family cooperation with CPS (Camasso & Jagannathan, 1995;Fluke et al, 2005;Hindley, Ramchandani, & Jones, 2006;Johnson & L'Esperance, 1984;Marks & McDonald, 1989;McDonald & Marks, 1991). Families are classified as low, moderate, or high risk for recurrence based on caseworker ratings of these items.…”

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The Use of Risk Assessment to Predict Recurrent Maltreatment: A Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART)

et al. 2008

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Research has suggested that recurrent maltreatment may be best predicted by a combination of factors that vary across families. The present study set out to determine whether a pattern-centered analytic approach would better predict families at high risk for recurrence when compared to logistic regression methods. Archival data from substantiated investigations during 2003 were collected from a Connecticut Department of Children and Families county branch. Families (n=244) with a substantiated index case were followed for 18 months to identify the presence of additional substantiated cases within the CPS system. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analyses revealed that prior CPS involvement was the best predictor of recurrent maltreatment. Further, risk items that were associated with recurrence were different for families with and without previous CPS investigations. Families with only prior unsubstantiated CPS investigations and poor child visibility within the community were at high risk for recurrence. Families without prior CPS involvement that were not actively involved in case planning and had a history of domestic violence were at high risk for recurrence. These findings suggest that pattern-centered analyses may be a useful approach to informing site-specific predictors of maltreatment recurrence by creating clear decision points that delineate high risk subgroups.Keywords child abuse and neglect; recurrent maltreatment; risk assessment; classification and regression tree analysis The primary goal of child protective services (CPS) is to reduce the likelihood of child maltreatment and its recurrence by providing appropriate services to families (Brookes & Webster, 1999); however, approximately 1/3 to 1/2 of families will have a recurret episode of maltreatment with subsequent reentry into the CPS system (DePanfilis & Zuravin, 1998;DePanfilis & Zuravin, 1999; Fluke, Shusterman, Hollinshead, & Yuan, 2005;Inkelas & Halfon, 1997). Risk assessment instruments were developed to aid caseworkers in identifying children who were at high risk for future abuse and neglect (Cash, 2001;Jagannathan & Camasso, 1996;Johnson & L'Esperance, 1984;Pecora, 1991). Although these assessments are now routinely administered during CPS investigations in 42 states (US Department of Health and Human Services, 2003); there remains no standard risk assessment model that clearly informs caseworker case planning and management (Schwalbe, 2004 Camasso & Jagannathan, 1995; Fluke et al., 2005;Hindley, Ramchandani, & Jones, 2006;Johnson & L'Esperance, 1984;Marks & McDonald, 1989;McDonald & Marks, 1991). Families are classified as low, moderate, or high risk for recurrence based on caseworker ratings of these items. An early review comparing eight risk assessment instruments (McDonald & Marks, 1991) found that perpetrator access predicted recurrent maltreatment in three prospective studies (Baird, 1988;Johnson & L'Esperance, 1984; Weedon, Torti, & Zunder, 1988) and a large family size predicted reabuse in two prospective ...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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The Use of Risk Assessment to Predict Recurrent Maltreatment: A Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART)

et al. 2008

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“…Standardized risk assessment instruments began to emerge in the early 1980s, prompted by a seminal study by Johnson and L ' Esperance (1984) in which they developed and tested a predictive model for maltreatment recurrence. However, most risk assessment models were implemented with limited evaluation on their validity in assessing risk.…”

Section: The Concept Of Risk Assessment In Child Welfarementioning

confidence: 99%

The experience of assessing risk by child protection workers in the north region of British Columbia

Taylor¹

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The aim of this qualitative study was to explore the experience of child protection social workers in the assessment of risk within a structured risk assessment model that employs a comprehensive risk assessment instrument to guide decision-making. The study explored the experiences of six female child protection workers employed by the Ministry of Children and Family Development in the North Region of British Columbia in completing a "risk assessment" case scenario of an "at-risk" child. Qualitative data were analyzed using thematic analysis to reveal the experience of assessing risk. The analyses revealed two broad themes: the meaning of the experience and reflection on practice with four sub themes (the experience of assessing risk, professional versus the personal, information gathering, and practice differences) that attempt to capture the interrelationship between the self and the job.ii Abstract

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“…Oepanfilis and Zuravin (2001) emphasized that risk assessment should assist the worker in isolating factors to determine which families need further intervention. Nearly 20 years earlier Johnson and L'Esperance (1984) had suggested that predictive models of recurrence could help agencies target families who needed more intensive services, thereby reducing the allocation of resources for families who were less likely to experience continued maltreatment.…”

Section: Risk Assessment Decision-makingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Child maltreatment assessment and recidivism : a study of Kentucky child protective services.

Mudd¹

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Predicting the recurrence of child abuse

Cited by 77 publications

References 0 publications

The Use of Risk Assessment to Predict Recurrent Maltreatment: A Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART)

The Use of Risk Assessment to Predict Recurrent Maltreatment: A Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART)

The experience of assessing risk by child protection workers in the north region of British Columbia

Child maltreatment assessment and recidivism : a study of Kentucky child protective services.

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