Predicting the potential worldwide distribution of Aedes aegypti under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Zika, dengue fever, and chikungunya are arboviral infections that are spread by Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). Climate change is one of the most important factors associated with the medically important insect pests such as mosquitoes (Culicidae). Diseases spread by mosquitoes are growing because of changes in global temperature; they will spread to new regions. The objective of the current study was to study potential geographic distribution habitats of Ae. aegypti in the world under both current and future climate conditions. The scenarios that used were BCC-CSM2-MR and IPSL-CM6A-LR with two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for each of the GCMs: SSP126 and SSP585. The results revealed that Altitude, Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation *100) (bio4) and Annual Precipitation (bio12) were the most important environmental variables that affected the distribution of Ae. aegypti.