Predicting the Potential Suitable Climate for Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) Cultivation in India under Climate Change Scenarios Using the MaxEnt Model

Hebbar, K. B.; Abhin, Pulloott Sukumar; Jose, Veliyathukudy Sanjo; Neethu, P; Santhosh, Arya; Shil, Sandip; Prasad, P. V. Vara

doi:10.3390/plants11060731

Cited by 21 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…The distribution of T. tabaci in the future was extrapolated from the base map of India. On the map, degrees of habitat suitability were classified into five classes based on ‘maximum training sensitivity plus specificity Cloglog threshold’ as the high habitat suitability area (0.778–1), the optimum habitat suitability (0.584–0.778), the medium habitat suitability (0.389–0.584), the low habitat suitability (0.195–0.389), and the unsuitable habitat (0.0–0.195) 5 .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of onion thrips, Thrips tabaci in India based on climate change projections using MaxEnt

Karuppaiah

Maruthadurai

Das

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Onion thrips, Thrips tabaci Lindeman, an economically important onion pest in India, poses a severe threat to the domestic and export supply of onions. Therefore, it is important to study the distribution of this pest in order to assess the possible crop loss, which it may inflict if not managed in time. In this study, MaxEnt was used to analyze the potential distribution of T. tabaci in India and predict the changes in the suitable areas for onion thrips under two scenarios, SSP126 and SSP585. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.993 and 0.989 for training and testing demonstrated excellent model accuracy. The true skill statistic value of 0.944 and 0.921, and the continuous Boyce index of 0.964 and 0.889 for training and testing, also showed higher model accuracy. Annual Mean Temperature (bio1), Annual Precipitation (bio12) and Precipitation Seasonality (bio15) are the main variables that determined the potential distribution of T. tabaci, with the suitable range of 22–28 °C; 300–1000 mm and 70–160, respectively. T. tabaci is distributed mainly in India's central and southern states, with 1.17 × 106 km2, covering 36.4% of land area under the current scenario. Multimodal ensembles show that under a low emission scenario (SSP126), low, moderate and optimum suitable areas of T. tabaci is likely to increase, while highly suitable areas would decrease by 17.4% in 2050 20.9% in 2070. Whereas, under the high emission scenario (SSP585), the high suitability is likely to contract by 24.2% and 51.7% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. According to the prediction of the BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1 and MIROC6 model, the highly suitable area for T. tabaci would likely contract under both SSP126 and SSP585. This study detailed the potential future habitable area for T. tabaci in India, which could help monitor and devise efficient management strategies for this destructive pest.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of onion thrips, Thrips tabaci in India based on climate change projections using MaxEnt

Karuppaiah

Maruthadurai

Das

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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“…To improve the accuracy of the predictions, we randomly selected 75% of the distribution points as the training data and the remaining 25% as the test data, the model was trained for 100 repetition and, the output data format set to Logistic and other values as default ( Moreno et al., 2011 ). The accuracy of the MaxEnt model is evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) value of the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) ( Hebbar et al., 2022 ). AUC >0.7 is generally considered to be a good model performance ( Rebelo et al., 2010 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Niche divergence at the intraspecific level in an endemic rare peony (Paeonia rockii): A phylogenetic, climatic and environmental survey

et al. 2022

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Ecological factors have received increasing attention as drivers of speciation but also in the maintenance of postspeciation divergence. However, the relative significance of the responses of species to climate oscillations for driving niche divergence or conservatism in the evolution of many species that pass through diverse environments and limited geographical boundaries remains poorly understood. Paeonia rockii (one of the ancient species of Paeonia) comprising two subspecies called Paeonia rockii subsp. rockii and Paeonia rockii subsp. taibaishanica is an endemic, rare, and endangered medicinal plant in China. In this study, we integrated whole chloroplast genomes, and ecological factors to obtain insights into ecological speciation and species divergence in this endemic rare peony. RAxML analysis indicated that the topological trees recovered from three different data sets were identical, where P. rockii subsp. rockii and P. rockii subsp. taibaishanica clustered together, and molecular dating analyses suggested that the two subspecies diverged 0.83 million years ago. In addition, ecological niche modeling showed that the predicted suitable distribution areas for P. rockii subsp. rockii and P. rockii subsp. taibaishanica differed considerably, although the predicted core distribution areas were similar, where the population contracted in the last interglacial and expanded in the last glacial maximum. Under the emissions scenarios for the 2050s and 2070s, the suitable distribution areas were predicted to contract significantly, where the migration routes of the two subspecies tended to migrate toward high latitudes and elevations, thereby suggesting strong responses of the distributions of the two subspecies to climate change. These findings combined with the phylogeographic relationships provide comprehensive insights into niche variation and differentiation in this endemic rare peony, and they highlight the importance of geological and climatic changes for species divergence and changes in the population geographic patterns of rare and endangered medicinal plants in East Asia.

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“…However, climate change projections introduce large uncertainties around the sustainable use of field collections due to the increase in the frequency of extreme climate events (flooding, late frosts, intensive summer droughts, heat waves, and amongst other events). Severe weather events in the past decade have already impacted global coconut (the RS Cocos nucifera) production, with crop changes to different genotypes and a shift in cultivation areas predicted for India, the world's third biggest producer of coconut (Hebbar et al, 2022). A shift in production regions is also predicted for cacao (Theobroma indica), another RS species, in West Africa and Colombia (Schroth et al, 2016;González-Orozco et al, 2022).…”

Section: Effects Of Climate Change On Rs Species Growth In Field Coll...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An increase in temperature also has a significant impact on the performance of male gametophytes, and thus, has a qualitative and quantitative impact on seed production (Hedhly, 2011). Poor fertilization and fruit production in coconut, for example, have been linked to above average temperatures impacting the germination of pollen on the stigma as well as pollen tube growth through the style (Hebbar et al, 2018(Hebbar et al, , 2022. In fact, Zinn et al (2010) found that even a single day of extreme weather conditions had a detrimental impact on the reproductive success of several plant species.…”

Section: Effects Of Increased Temperatures On Pollenmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential impacts of climate change on ex situ conservation options for recalcitrant-seeded species

Fernández

León‐Lobos

Contreras

et al. 2023

Front. For. Glob. Change

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Recalcitrant seeds are characterized by desiccation and freezing sensitivity, and short storage longevity. These physiological attributes obviate their ex situ conservation in conventional seed banks, where seeds are stored dry at sub-zero temperatures (typically, 15% relative humidity and –20°C) for extended periods of time. Propagation of plants for field collections (e.g., botanical gardens, nurseries, and arboretums) is a valuable ex situ conservation option. However, these collections are relatively costly, require high maintenance, preserve limited genetic diversity and/or are directly exposed to biotic (e.g., pests) and abiotic (e.g., climatic) threats. Therefore, recalcitrant-seeded (RS) species are dependent on cryopreservation for their safe and long-term ex situ conservation. Different explant sources such as whole seeds, zygotic embryos, dormant buds, shoot tips, and pollen, can be used for plant propagation of RS species in field collections as well as for their cryopreservation. The success of the propagation or the cryopreservation of these explants often depends on their developmental status, vigor, and/or tolerance to desiccation and chilling/freezing. These attributes are modulated by the environment where the donor plant grows and we hypothesize that climate change, by affecting these biological attributes, would impact the success of explant propagation and cryopreservation. To support this hypothesis, we have reviewed how temperature changes and drought, the two main climate change scenarios, affect the main biological attributes that are directly involved in the success of ex situ conservation of tropical and temperate RS species. In general, increases in temperature and drought will negatively affect plant development in field collections and the quality of the explants used in cryopreservation. Consequently, field collections of RS species may need to be moved to more suitable places (e.g., higher latitudes/altitudes). Additionally, we may find a reduction in the success of cryopreservation of RS species germplasm directly harvested from field collections. However, we cannot always generalize these effects for all species since they often depend on the origin of the species (e.g., tropical and temperate species tend to respond to climate change differently), the genotype, the adaptive genetic potential of each population, and the severity of the environmental change. On the other hand, the increase in temperatures and water stress in donor plants at high-latitude areas and also some tropical environments may favor the production of seeds and seedlings better adapted to drying, and hence, increase the success of plant propagation and zygotic embryo cryopreservation.

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Predicting the Potential Suitable Climate for Coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) Cultivation in India under Climate Change Scenarios Using the MaxEnt Model

Cited by 21 publications

References 68 publications

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of onion thrips, Thrips tabaci in India based on climate change projections using MaxEnt

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of onion thrips, Thrips tabaci in India based on climate change projections using MaxEnt

Niche divergence at the intraspecific level in an endemic rare peony (Paeonia rockii): A phylogenetic, climatic and environmental survey

The potential impacts of climate change on ex situ conservation options for recalcitrant-seeded species

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