Predicting the Potential Market for Electric Vehicles

Jensen, Anders Fjendbo; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Mabit, Stefan Lindhard; Ortúzar, Juan de Dios

doi:10.1287/trsc.2015.0659

Cited by 82 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…They conclude that the Renault BEVs have a stronger potential that the conventional Renault cars. Jensen et al (2014) add to the hybrid model a diffusion model in Table 1 Overview of selected SP studies on consumer preferences and market penetration of AFVs. year, a higher increase is seen each year.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the market penetration of cars with alternative fuelpowertrain technologies in Italy

Valeri

Danielis

2015

Transport Policy

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the market penetration of cars with alternative fuelpowertrain technologies in Italy

Valeri

Danielis

2015

Transport Policy

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“…The majority of these studies (e.g., Bunch, Bradley, Golob, Kitamura, & Occhiuzzo, 1993;Batley, Knight, & Toner, 2004;Horne, Jaccard, & Tiedemann, 2005;Potoglou & Kanaroglou, 2007;Mabit & Fosgerau, 2011;Achtnicht, 2012;Daziano & Bolduc, 2013;Hackbarth & Madlener, 2013) analyzed the effect of car features (such as purchase price, driving range, fuel costs) and charging location (Batley et al, 2004;Bockarjova, Rietveld, & Knockaert, 2013;Ito, Takeuchi, & Managi, 2013;Jensen, Cherchi, Mabit, & Ortuzar, 2014) on the AFV's demand. Some recent studies have also explored the role of individuals' attitudes, mainly toward environment sensitivity (Daziano & Chiew, 2012;Daziano & Bolduc, 2013;Jensen, Cherchi, & Mabit, 2013;Glerum, Stankovikj, Themans, & Bierlaire, 2013) but also toward car features (Mabit & Fosgerau 2011), in their propensity to buy AFVs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the characteristics of EVs and their recharging options play crucial roles in explaining their potential demand, some authors (Struben & Sterman, 2008;Shephard, Bonsall, & Harrison, 2012;Jensen et al, 2014) have recently shown that the diffusion effect can be one of the reasons behind the delay of EV market penetration. The diffusion effect refers to the time delay in adopting an innovative product because that an innovation is first adopted by a (usually initially small) segment of individuals, while the majority of the people delay their choice until the product will be widespread in the market.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As with any new technology not yet spread into the market, there is uncertainty about how using an AFV could impact the individual's daily life. Jensen et al (2014), for example, showed that individuals expressed concern about the ability to maintain their present mobility with an AFV and that this can favor the choice of a conventional vehicle over the AFV. It is then plausible to believe that inertia in buying a specific type of car (or type of engine) seems then to be related to the habit developed in terms of using the car.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Does habitual behavior affect the choice of alternative fuel vehicles?

Valeri

Cherchi

2016

International Journal of Sustainable Transportation

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Because of the recent improvements in the electrification process of cars, several types of alternative fuel vehicles are appearing in the car market. However, these new engine technologies are not easily penetrating the market around the world and the conventional ones are still the leaders. A vast literature has explored the reasons for such low market penetration, due mainly to car's features. Using a hybrid choice model approach, in this research we study if, and to which extent, habitual car use influences individual propensity to buy a specific type of engine technology. We found significant latent habitual effect on choices of type of car engine. This effect is important only for some of the car alternatives considered in the study. In particular, habitual car users prefer to buy a new car with liquefied petroleum gas and compressed natural gas types of engine technology instead of a conventional one. The importance of taking into account this latent construct is demonstrated also with the results of the simulated elasticity measures. In fact, the exclusion of latent habitual effect significantly underestimates the elasticity of diesel and hybrid cars and overestimates the elasticity of liquefied petroleum gas car.

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“…Previous studies have analyzed the marginal effect of vehicle attributes, such as price and driving range, on ICEV and BEV user values by modeling consumer choice behaviors and demand for the automobile market among existing products 18‐25 . However, it is problematic to assess how design changes and technological improvements in the near and long term affect the ICEV and BEV user values if one only considers demand‐side empirical models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the value of battery electric vehicles compared to internal combustion engine vehicles: The influence of driving range and battery technology

Woo

Magee

2020

Int J Energy Res

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Summary Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are now clearly a promising candidate to address the environmental problems that are associated with conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Accordingly, governments in many countries have promoted consumer adoption of BEVs by providing financial incentives and automobile manufacturers are accelerating their efforts to develop BEVs. However, BEVs, unlike ICEVs, have not yet achieved mass market entry; continuing technological change is one way this barrier could be surmounted. The aim of this study is to assess and forecast whether and when design changes and technological improvements related to major challenges in driving range and battery cost will make the user value of BEVs greater than that of ICEVs. Specifically, we estimate the relative user value of BEVs and ICEVs resulting after design modifications are implemented to achieve different driving ranges by considering engineering trade‐offs based on vehicle simulations. Then, we analyze when the BEV relative user value is expected to exceed that of ICEVs as energy density and cost of batteries improve due to ongoing technological changes. Our analysis demonstrates that the relative value of BEVs is lower than that of ICEVs because BEVs have high battery cost and high cost of time spent recharging them, despite featuring high torque, high fuel efficiency, and low fuel cost. Moreover, we found that the relative value differences between BEVs and ICEVs are found to be lower for high‐performance large cars than low‐performance compact cars because BEVs can achieve high acceleration performance more easily than can ICEVs. In addition, this study predicts that in approximately the year 2050, high‐performance large BEVs could have a higher relative value than high‐performance large ICEVs because of technological improvements in batteries; however, low‐performance compact BEVs are still very likely to have significantly lower user values than will comparable ICEVs until well beyond the year 2050.

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Predicting the Potential Market for Electric Vehicles

Cited by 82 publications

References 38 publications

Simulating the market penetration of cars with alternative fuelpowertrain technologies in Italy

Simulating the market penetration of cars with alternative fuelpowertrain technologies in Italy

Does habitual behavior affect the choice of alternative fuel vehicles?

Forecasting the value of battery electric vehicles compared to internal combustion engine vehicles: The influence of driving range and battery technology

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