Predicting the Potential Global Geographical Distribution of Two Icerya Species under Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including insects. Icerya aegyptiaca (Douglas) and I. purchasi Maskell are two polyphagous and invasive pests in the genus Icerya Signoret (Hemiptera: Monophlebidae) and cause serious damage to many landscape and economic trees. However, the global habitats suitable for these two Icerya species are unclear. The purpose of this study is to determine the potentially suitable habitats of these two species, then to provide scientific management strategies. Using MaxEnt software, the potential risk maps of I. aegyptiaca and I. purchasi were created based on their occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors. The results suggested that under current climate conditions, the potentially habitable area of I. aegyptiaca would be much larger than the current distribution and there would be small changes for I. purchasi. In the future climate change scenarios, the suitable habitats of these two insect species will display an increasing trend. Africa, South America and Asia would be more suitable for I. aegyptiaca. South America, Asia and Europe would be more suitable for I. purchasi. Moreover, most of the highly habitat suitability areas of I. aegyptiaca will become concentrated in Southern Asia. The results also suggested that “min temperature of coldest month” was the most important environmental factor affecting the prediction models of these two insects. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policies to manage and control these two invasive pests of the genus Icerya.

Klasifikasi Jenis Pemeliharaan dan Perawatan Container Crane menggunakan Algoritma Machine Learning

“…Dalam eksperimen ini, kami menggunakan Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) dan areanya (dinotasikan sebagai Area Under Operating Characteristics atau AUC) sebagai evaluasi sederhana mengenai bagaimana performa setiap algoritma ML mengklasifikasi per kelas perawatan ringan dan berat [28]. AUC juga digunakan sebagai alternatif dari metode evaluasi umum Confusion Matrix.…”

“…7. Ilustrasi ROC-AUC [28] ROC seringkali dipasangkan dengan AUC. Kurva AUC-ROC merupakan pengukuran performa untuk masalah klasifikasi pada berbagai pengaturan threshold.…”

The Potential Global Distribution of Sirex juvencus (Hymenoptera: Siricidae) under Near Current and Future Climatic Conditions as Predicted by the Maximum Entropy Model

“…Maximum entropy theory is one such model and predicts species’ potential distribution area using occurrence points and environmental variables [ 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 ]. And the maximum entropy model has been applied in various studies predicting habitat suitability for plants, animals, and fungi [ 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 ], especially in invasion biology studies. The maximum entropy model is highly advantageous above other models due to its faster operational capability, simplicity of operation, stable calculation results, and high accuracy [ 38 ].…”

Sex, males, and hermaphrodites in the scale insectIcerya purchasi

“…This species is a highly polyphagous pest, feeding on urban ornamental plants (e.g. Magnolia), agricultural crops such as Ficus and Citrus (Singh and Kaur 2015;Liu and Shi 2020), and plants of conservation importance (e.g. Galapagos endemics threatened by the introduction of Icerya, Hoddle et al 2013).…”

“…I. purchasi spread from its native range in Australia over a century ago and it is now globally distributed. Climate models predict changing environmental conditions will permit further geographic expansion in the future (Liu and Shi 2020).…”