Predicting the Potential Distribution of Hylomecon japonica in China under Current and Future Climate Change Based on Maxent Model

Abstract

Hylomecon japonica is considered a natural medicinal plant with anti-inflammatory, anticancer and antibacterial activity. The assessment of climate change impact on its habitat suitability is important for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. In this study, the maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the current and future distribution of H. japonica species, and the contributions of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 102 occurrence records. The predicted potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Henan, Heilongjiang and other provinces (adaptability index > 0.6). The jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (40.5%), mean annual temperature (12.4%), the precipitation of wettest quarter (11.6%) and the subclass of soil (9.7%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. In the future, only under the shared socioeconomic Pathway 245 (SSP 245) scenario model in 2061–2080, the suitable habitat area for H. japonica is expected to show a significant upward trend. The area under other scenarios may not increase or decrease significantly.

Buchanania cochinchinensis (Lour.) M.R. Almedia habitat exhibited robust adaptability to diverse socioeconomic scenarios in eastern India

“…This looks logically agreeable, as SSP 126 portrays a sustainable socioeconomic scenario. Numerous studies have demonstrated the importance of sustaining the use of natural resources (Qi et al 2022;Cao et al 2021). For middle SSP pathways SSP245 and SSP370 also, the study showed an increase in the potentially suitable habitat of B. cochinchinensis.…”

Projected Effects of Climate Change on Species Range of Pantala flavescens, a Wandering Glider Dragonfly

“…The filtered environmental factors and occurrence records data were used to predict the potential habitat distribution and range of P. flavescens by MaxEnt model version 3.3.3k [22]. Of all the occurrence data used for analysis, 25% was randomly selected for testing and 75% was used for training [16,29,30,[43][44][45]. Then set 1000 iterations to run these processes until a threshold of 0.00001 indicates convergence [30,45].…”

Potentially Suitable Geographical Area for Monochamus alternatus under Current and Future Climatic Scenarios Based on Optimized MaxEnt Model

“…Among them, the MaxEnt model is considered an excellent prediction tool due to its high prediction accuracy and has been widely used in the prediction of plants, insects, and other organisms because of its advantages of high simulation accuracy and rapid and easy operation [ 23 , 26 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 ]. In addition, the MaxEnt model can be used to simulate and predict species distribution areas only with the geographical spatial data of the target species [ 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 ]. Compared with other SDMs, the advantage of the MaxEnt model is that it has a higher prediction accuracy and reliability when applied to the “existence-only” data of species occurrence.…”

“…Compared with other SDMs, the advantage of the MaxEnt model is that it has a higher prediction accuracy and reliability when applied to the “existence-only” data of species occurrence. In addition, the MaxEnt model also had good prediction ability when a small amount of species distribution data were available [ 33 , 34 , 35 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 ]. However, previous studies have shown that the default parameters of the MaxEnt model may not be optimal for predicting species distribution [ 15 , 40 , 42 , 43 ].…”