Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games

Boulier, Bryan L.; Stekler, H. O.

doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(01)00144-3

Cited by 93 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The experts know the ATP rankings, but they typically deviate from them, taking into account their specific expert knowledge about the players and the specifics of the Wimbledon tennis court, such as the players' success in grass tournaments. World rankings and expert seeding have been shown to be good predictors of sport outcomes (Boulier & Stekler, 1999, 2003. For each strategy, the same decision rule was used: the player with the higher rank will win the game.…”

Section: Competitorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fast and frugal forecasting

Goldstein

Gigerenzer

2009

International Journal of Forecasting

152

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Simple statistical forecasting rules, which are usually simplifications of classical models, have been shown to make better predictions than more complex rules, especially when the future values of a criterion are highly uncertain. In this article, we provide evidence that some of the fast and frugal heuristics that people use intuitively are able to make forecasts that are as good as or better than those of knowledge-intensive procedures. We draw from research on the adaptive toolbox and ecological rationality to demonstrate the power of using intuitive heuristics for forecasting in various domains including sport, business, and crime.

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Section: Competitorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fast and frugal forecasting

Goldstein

Gigerenzer

2009

International Journal of Forecasting

152

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“…For example, if the object of analysis is the effect of performance on the pitch on attendance, it will be more useful to employ variables such as the 'percentage of victories' (Dawson et al, 2000;Marques, 2002;Boulier and Stekler, 4 2003), 'number of goals scored by match' (Palacios-Huerta, 2002), 'team's goal average weighted by relative quality of rival team' (Koning et al 2001), 'score/goal difference' (Boulier and Stekler, 2003;Palacios-Huerta, 2002), and even variables which incorporate the 'playing style' (Cocco and Jones, 1997). Koning (2003) working on an evaluation of the effect of hiring coaches on team performance used 'average goal difference,' 'goals conceded,' and 'goals scored.…”

Section: The Measurement Of Sports Performancementioning

confidence: 99%

Does Sports Performance Influence Revenues and Economic Results in Spanish Football?

2005

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English football began taking steps towards becoming a business earlier than Spanish football did, and academic studies on the football industry to date also focus primarily on football in the UK. The evidence for the relationship between sports performance and revenues appear clear in English football. There is even research about the effects of a club's wealth on its sports performance, or the effects of a club's sporting situations on its finances. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between sports performance and the revenues of football clubs as well as the effect of sports performance on the financial results in Spanish professional football. In order to carry out this research we have had to select which variables to analyse and choose the most appropriate methods of measurement. We have designed a system which obtains a variable of sports performance that includes information from every competition in which the football club participates.

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“…Despite recent attempts to construct individual performance profiles in team sports such as basketball, baseball, rubgy, and American football (Boulier and Stekler, 2003;Csataljay, et al, 2009;Ibáñez, et al, 2008;Ortega, Villarejo and Palao, 2009;Sampaio, Lago and Drinkwater, 2010), there has been little research into the construction of team performance indicators and profile in association football. The preponderance of research in these team sports is largely explained by the sport´s nature involving `plays´ which are easily identifiable and categorizable, with individual contributions which can be easily isolated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%