Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Species Distribution and Conservation Strategies of Picea neoveitchii using MaxEnt Modeling

Abstract

Picea neoveitchii Mast., an endemic and rare species in China, classified as Critically Endangered (CR) in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, holds significant research value due to its unique biological characteristics, which are crucial for plant taxonomy and the conservation of the genus Picea. Despite its excellent timber quality and high ornamental value, it has not been widely used and well protected. In this scientific investigation, MaxEnt modeling was employed to assess the optimal distribution range, influential variables, and the current conservation posture of P. neoveitchii, along with projections into potential future climatic contexts. This approach provides a rigorous scientific foundation upon which conservation strategies can be formulated and refined. During the research process, we enhanced the prediction accuracy of the model by conducting field surveys on species distribution, eliminating redundant distribution data, and removing some environmental data with high correlation coefficients. The results indicate that Minimum Temperature of the Coldest Month, Annual Precipitation, Temperature Seasonality, and Altitude are the key factors influencing the distribution of P. neoveitchii. Under different climate scenarios, the suitable area of P. neoveitchii shifts northwestward. Under SSP2-4.5、ssp5-5.8 scenario, the suitable area decreases in all periods. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the suitable area decreases, except the period from 2080 to 2100, which sightly increases. The proportion of habitat within natural reserves increases. These findings are of great significance for conservation strategies and provide valuable references for future forest management and protection efforts.